ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᖅ: ᑕᓴᓐ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᖁᓕᑦ ᑖᓚ ᑕᓴᓐ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑐᓂ, 24 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᔪᑦ, ᕕᕝᑎ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ. ᑕᓴᓐ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓚᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ, ᐱᖓᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᓱᓕᓗ 2.70%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᓗᓂ.
ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ, 50 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ, $10 ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᒧᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖓᓄᓪᓗ ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ. ᑐᕐᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ $10, ᓇᐃᓐᑏᓐ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ $20 (ᐱᖓᔪᐊᖓ ᑕᓴᓐ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓯᕉ). ᑲᑎᑦᓱᒋᑦ −$70, +$90 ᐱᑕᖃᓚᐅᖅᓗᓂ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔪᕐᓴᓇᐃᑦᑐᑎᑐᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᔪᒐᒐᔪᒻᒪᑦ, ᐊᑭᖓᓗ ᐊᓯᖏᑎᑐᑦ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᒥᒃ.
ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ: ᑕᓴᓐ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
$10 ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᒧᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, $10-ᓗ ᒪᕐᕉᖓᓄᑦ. 1-ᒥᑦ 24-ᒧᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᒧᑦ $20 ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᓯᐊᓄᓪᓗ $10 ᐊᓯᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ: +$10. 25-ᒥᑦ 36-ᒧᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ: −$20. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →: (24 × 10 − 13 × 20)/37 = −20/37 = −$0.54 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ, $20-ᐅᑉ 2.70%-ᖓ. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖓ 64.9%, ᑕᒪᓐᓇᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᒃ ᓂᐅᕕᐊᒃᓴᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ.
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ 1–25
ᐃᑏᓐ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ, ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ: +$180 − $140 = +$40. ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ ᐃᓚᓕᒃ ᓯᕉ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐊᕐᓗᓂ ᐱᖓᓱᓪᓗ ᐱᖓᔪᐊᖓᓂ ᑕᓴᓐᒥ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂ 11–13, $60 ᐊᓯᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᙱᑦᑐᑎᑐᓪᓗ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ. 35.1% ᑲᑎᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᑎᑭᑦᑐᑦ, ᑲᑎᒐᔪᒻᒪᑕ.
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ 26–50
ᑕᕐᑏᓐ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ, ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓪᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ: +$130 − $240 = −$110. 25 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓪᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ 20% ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᐳᑦ, ᖃᑦᑕᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᐃᑦ ᐅᓐᓂ. ᐃᓱᓕᓐᓂᖓᓂ −$70; ᐊᖏᓛᖅ +$90 31-ᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓇᓕᐊᒧᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐊᖏᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓂᖃᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ $10-ᐅᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᓗ $20; ᐅᐊᕐᔪᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᑦᓯᔪᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$280
- p75 −$40
- p90 +$170
ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖏᑦ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ $1,000, 50 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → $27; ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ −$70, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ (ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ σ $14 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ, ᑕᐃᒪ 50 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ $100 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ). ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ $20 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖃᕐᓂᐊᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᒥᒡᓗ σ-ᒥᒃ, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ $140 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ: ᑕᓴᓐ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᓕᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᓯᐅᑎ.
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᑕ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᔭᖓ
24 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᕉᓚᑦᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᒐᔪᒃᐸᑦᑎᓐᓂᑎᑐᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᒐᔪᒃᐳᓪᓗ: ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ 64.9%-ᖏᓐᓂ. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ 35.1% ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔭᐃᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᑭᖃᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒻᒧᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ, ᐅᓗᐱᓕᒐᖅ, ᐊᓐᓄᕌᒃᓴᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ ᑲᑎᑦᓱᒋᑦ −1/37-ᖓᓄᑦ. ᓯᕉᒧᑦ ᓯᑉᒥᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → “ᓴᐳᔾᔨᔾᔪᑎᒃᓴᒥᒃ” ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᒍᕕᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᓱᒋᑦ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᓱᓕ 2.70%, ᓴᐳᔾᔨᔾᔪᑎ 2.70%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᒪᑦ ᐊᒻᒪᑦᑕᐅᖅ. ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎ: ᑕᓴᓐ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᑉᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᖓ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐃᔪᖅ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ: 24 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᑐᑭᓪᓕᒃᐸᑦ +1 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᑐᑭᓪᓕᙱᑉᐸᑦ −2. ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖓᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ; ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒻᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑎᔪᑦ. ᓇᓕᖓᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
25 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᓕᖅᐳᑦ; ᓯᕉ ᒫᓐᓇ ᑲᑎᑦᓱᒋᑦ +$15, −$20-ᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ $1 ᐊᑭᖃᖅᓗᓂ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ −$0.57 $21-ᒥ, ᓱᓕ 2.70%.
ᐄ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓗ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᐸᖓᓂ $10 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑎᑦ. ᐃᓚᓐᓂᒃᑯᑦ $20 ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑎᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᖓᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᐱᖓᔪᐊᖓᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓗᑎᑦ. ᓴᖅᑭᔮᖓ 2.70%.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.