ᕉᓚᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒡᓗ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖅ
ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕆᐊᒃᓴᖅᑎᑦᑎᔪᖅ. ᐅᕙᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᓐᓇᕐᒪᖔᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᕙᓪᓕᐊᑎᑦᑎᙱᓪᓗᓂ.
ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓖᑦ, ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦ, ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ, ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᑦᑎᔪᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ, ᐃᓄᐃᓪᓗ ᐊᑯᓂ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᖅᐸᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ. ᕉᓚᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓂᓪᓗ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓂᒃ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᕐᒥᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖓᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖓᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖓ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᓂᒡᓕᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᖅᑕᖓᓂᒃ, ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓅᓪᓗᐊᑦᑕᕐᕕᒃ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᒥᒡᓗ.
ᓱᖕᒪᑦ ᕉᓚᑦ
ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᔅ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓂᒃ; ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᒥᑭᓗᐊᖅᑐᒃ ᐃᓅᓪᓗᐊᑦᑕᕐᕕᒃ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐃᓅᓪᓗᐊᑦᑕᕐᕕᒃ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᖃᔅᓯᑦ ᐃᓄᐃᑦ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᐸᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐃᓅᓪᓗᐊᑦᑕᕐᕕᖃᑎᒌᒃᑐᓴᐅᓕᖁᓪᓗᒋᒃ, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᖃᔅᓯᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐅᑎᖅᑐᓴᐅᓕᖁᓪᓗᒍ. 37-ᓂᒃ ᐃᓂᓕᒻᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ, 8 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᓇᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᕿᑎᐊᓂᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ ᐱᓗᐊᖁᓪᓗᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐃᓂ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ n/37-ᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᒻᒪᖔᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᓂᐊᕐᓗᒋᑦ. ᑳᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᐃᖃᐅᒪᔾᔪᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᕉᓚᑦ 37 ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᓐᓂᒃ, ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᓂᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᑐᑭᓕᐅᕐᓗᒍ ᓈᓴᐅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᑎᔪᓂᒃ, ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᓂᒃ ᓴᓇᔭᐅᓂᖓᒍᑦ, ᑳᓯᓅᒡᓗ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐃᔨᖅᑐᓐᓇᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᕐᕌᒍᒥᓗ ᐊᖏᓛᖑᓂᐊᖅᑐᒥᒃ. ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᒪᕐᕉᓂᒃ ᕼᐊᓐᑐᕆᑦ ᐊᕐᕌᒍᓂᒃ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᒃᓴᓂᒃ.
ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕐᓃᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᕆᐊᖏᑦ
ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᓪᓗᓂ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ ᐆᑦᑐᕋᐅᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᒡᓗ, ᓱᓕᔪᓂᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐅᑎᖅᑕᐃᓐᓇᕐᓗᑎᑦᓗ: ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ “ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒡᓗ ᐊᑭᖓ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ”. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᖑᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᔾᔪᑎᒋᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐊᑐᖅᑕᒃᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᑎᒃ: ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎ ᐱᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᓂᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎᓗ ᐱᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓯᑭᓐᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᑎᑦᑎᔪᖅ. ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᓄᐃᑦ ᐱᐅᓯᑐᖃᖓᑦ ᐃᓚᓗᒍ. ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᐃᒪᐃᑦᑐᖅ: ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊᓗ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᐊᓘᔪᖅ.
ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᖑᔪᑦ
ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᖃᑦᓯᓂᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖃᕐᓂᐊᕐᒪᖔᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᓴᖅᑭᑲᓐᓂᓐᓇᓂᐊᓄᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐆᑦᑐᕋᐅᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᖁᓕᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ (ᐃᓅᓪᓗᐊᑦᑕᕐᕕᒃ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎ). “ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥᒃ” ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎᒃᑯᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ 10,000-ᓂᒡᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ (ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑭᖏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ). ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 1913-ᒥ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᓇᐅᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂ ᖁᓕᓂ ᐊᕐᕌᒍᓂ ᒪᓐᑎ ᑳᓗᒥ (ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᓐᓂᕐᒥᒡᓗ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᕐᒥᒃ). “ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᖅ” ᐃᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓇᓂᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᑕᕐᓇᐃᓕᒋᐊᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ (ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᖅ).
ᓱᖕᒪᑦ ᐃᖃᐅᒪᔭᐅᕙ
ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐃᖃᐅᒪᔭᖏᑦ 26 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᔮᒡᒐᐅᑉ (Jagger) ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ, ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎᓗ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᑎᓂᖓ. ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᐳᐃᒍᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᑎᑭᓐᓇᓂᐊᓄᑦ; ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐳᐃᒍᖅᑕᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐱᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᓕᕆᓂᖅ ᓇᓗᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᓗᑎᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᐅᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑎᑦᑎᔪᒥᒃ, ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒍ, ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑏᓪᓗ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᓂᐊᖅᑐᑦ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᓂ, ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓪᓗᓂᓗ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ, ᐄ. ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑕᐃᔅᓂᒃ ᓛᑐᕆᓂᒡᓗ ᐊᑐᖅᓯᒪᓕᖅᑐᑦ; ᕉᓚᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᕐᓂᖅᓴᖅ.
ᕉᓚᑦ: ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐆᑦᑐᕋᐅᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎ.
ᓱᓕᔪᓂᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᑎᓕᐅᕐᕕᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᐅᓚᑦᓯᔨᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᑐᐊᒐᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ, ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᕼᐊᓐᑐᕆᑦ ᐊᕐᕌᒍᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐃᓕᑦᑕᒃᓴᐃᑦ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.