ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᓱᓇᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ.
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᑉ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖓ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᑐᐃᓂᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓈᓴᐃᓃᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᑖᓐᓇ ᑐᖓᕕᒋᔭᖏᑦ.
ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᓂᖅ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᐸ
p(ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ 2-ᒥ | ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ 1-ᒥ) = p(ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ) = 18/37. ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓂᖏᑦ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᐆᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᒫᓐᓇᑲᓪᓚᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᕈᓘᔭᕐᓂᖅᓴᐃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᙱᑦᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐃᒃᑮᔪᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅᐃᒃᑮᔪᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓯᕗᓂᒃᓴᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᒋᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᕐᕋᖏᓪᓗ “ᓴᖅᑭᒋᐊᖃᓕᖅᑐᑦ” ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᑦ, ᓯᕗᓂᒃᓴᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᓐᓇᐅᑎᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᖓᕕᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᐃᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ. ᒪᓕᒐᖅᑎᒍᑦ, ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᓇᓕᐊᒃᑲᓐᓂᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᔾᔪᑎ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᕐᒥ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ.
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ “ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᐃᙱᑦᑐᑦ” ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅ
ᐊᖅᓴᖅᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐊᖅᓴᖅᒥᑭᔪᖅ ᐊᖅᓴᖅ ᐊᖁᑎᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᑉ ᐊᑉᐱᖓᓄᑦ ᐃᒋᑕᐅᔪᖅ. ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᖅᓵᑦ ᐃᕗᕆᓐ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑎᕙᓚᓐ, 18–21 mm.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᒡᒐᒥᒃ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑎᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᓱᒃᑲᐃᓐᓂᖓ ᒦᑕᒧᑦ ᓯᑭᓐᒧᑦ ᖁᓕᐊᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᒃᑐᑦ; ᐊᖁᑎᒥ ᐅᕕᖕᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᐳᔪᖅ ᐃᓯᐊᖅᑐᑦᓗ ᒪᓕᒃᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᒃᑐᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᒃᑐᖅ; ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᐊᖅᓴᐅᑉ ᓇᒻᒥᓂᖅᓯᐅᑎᖓᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐊᖅᓴᐅᑉ ᓇᒻᒥᓂᖅᓯᐅᑎᖓᓴᕕᒻᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᑉᐱᕆᒐᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐊᑖᓃᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ, ᐊᑦᑎᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᖅᓴᖅ ᓇᒻᒥᓂᖅᓯᔭᖅᑎᑕᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᕿᔭᖅᐸᒃ, ᓯᑕᒪᐅᓕᐊᖅ, ᑭᑦᑐᖅᓯᐅᑎ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᒃᑐᐃᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᑖᒃᑯᓄᖓ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓄᑦ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᑕᐅᔪᒥ ᓴᖑᓂᖓᓂ; ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᐅᑎᖏᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᐅᑎᖓᓴᕕᒻᒥᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᐅᑎ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓂ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᖁᓛᒍᑦ ᐳᐊᒃᐸᓪᓕᐊᕙᒃᑐᖅ, ᑖᒃᑯᐊ 1 m/s-ᒥ ᐊᖅᓴᒧᑦ ᐊᒃᑐᐃᓂᖏᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᑐᑭᖓᒍᑦ ᐋᖅᑭᐅᒪᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᑖᒃᑯᓄᖓ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑲᓐᓂᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐃᓂᓂᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᓕᒃ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓂ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᐃᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐃᔨᖅᓯᒪᔪᓐᓇᖅᑕᖓ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᑖᓐᓇ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎ.
ᑖᔅᓱᒪ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᓱᓇ ᐱᑦᑕᖅᐸ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᕐᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᑦ. ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓃᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐊ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᓴᒐᒃᓴᖃᙱᑉᐸᑕ, ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐊ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᐅᓯᑎᑦᓯᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᑖᓐᓇ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖅᑎᒍᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᐱᓪᓗᒍ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᖏᑦ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓱᓕ ᓴᓇᔭᐅᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᓄᑦ: ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᖅ ᒪᓕᒐᕐᒥᒃ ᒪᓕᒃᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᖃᖓ ᐊᑐᙱᓐᓂᐊᖅᐸ
ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᒍᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᐅᑉ ᐊᖅᓴᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖓ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᕈᓂ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ. ᑖᒃᑯᐊ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᑦ. ᑕᐃᑲᓂᓗ, ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᐃᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᒪᓕᒃᑐᖅ, ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᕐᓂᒃ ᒪᓕᒃᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐃᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ, “ᐃᒃᑮᓯᒪᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ” ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᓂ ᐋᖅᑭᐅᒪᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᓂᖅ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ
ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᐸᑕ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᐅᑎᒋᔭᖓ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓᒍᑦ. ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᐅᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ. 1999-ᒥ ᓴᓕ ᑲᓛᒃ (Sally Clark), ᐃᖏᓕᓐᓄᑦ ᓄᓇᖓᓂ ᒪᓕᒐᓕᕆᔨ, ᐃᕐᓂᖏᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓄᑕᕋᐃᓛᒃ ᑐᖁᑦᓯᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᓗᐊᕆᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᓄᑕᕋᓂᒃ ᐋᓐᓂᐊᓯᐅᖅᑎ ᐃᖅᑲᐅᒪᔨᓄᑦ ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᒌᓂ ᐃᒪᓐᓇᐃᑦᑐᓂ ᓄᑕᕋᐃᓛᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᑕᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᑐᖁᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ 1 73 ᒥᓕᐊᓂᑦ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ 1 8,543-ᓂᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, ᐃᒻᒥᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᓇᓂᓯᒪᔭᖓ. ᐃᒻᒥᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅ ᑐᖁᓃᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓪᓗᒋᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᖏᒃ. ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᖓᔪᖅᑳᖃᑎᒌᑦ ᐃᓗᐃᑦᑐᓴᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᒡᓗᒥᒡᓗ ᐊᑐᖃᑎᒌᑦᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓄᑕᕋᐃᓛᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᑕᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᑐᖁᒃᐸᑦ ᐊᐱᖓ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᐊᓘᓕᖅᑐᖅ. Royal Statistical Society ᑖᓐᓇ ᓴᖅᑭᔮᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ 2001-ᒥ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᑲᓛᒃ ᐱᓗᐊᕆᔭᐅᓂᖓ ᐲᔭᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᐱᖓᓂ ᐊᐱᕆᑲᓐᓂᕐᓂᕐᒥ 2003-ᒥ, ᐋᓐᓂᐊᓯᐅᖅᑎᓂᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑐᓴᖅᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᕼᐅᓇᓴᒃ (Hunacek) (2025) ᑖᓐᓇ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᐅᑉ ᐅᕙᓂ ᑐᖓᕕᒋᔭᖓᓂᒃ ᒪᓕᒐᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ: ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ.
ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᓂᖅ RNG ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᓪᓗ
ᖃᕆᑕᐅᔭᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎᒥᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᐅᑎᓕᒻᒥᑦ ᐱᔭᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᐅᓯᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ: ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᓂᖏᑦ ᒥᓕᐊᓐ ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᐱᔭᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ. ᑕᑯᓐᓇᑦᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᓇᒻᒪᑦᓴᐅᑎ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ. RNG ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᐅᑎᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᙱᓐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᓐᓇᖅᑕᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᓱᓕᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐃᓂᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐋᒡᒐ. ᐃᒻᒪᖄ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᓗᑦᑐᓂ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓄᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᓂ; ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᐅᑉ ᐃᓕᖁᓯᖓ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ. ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐅᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᐊᖅᓴᐅᑉ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᕙᒃᑐᑦ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᓗᑎᒃ.
ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑕᐅᓴᓐ ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ, ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᒍ ᐄ. ᑐᓪᓕᐊ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ, ᐋᒡᒐ.
ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ
ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᒃ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᑐᓪᓕᐊ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐊᓂᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᑉᐸᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᐸᑕ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ, 0-ᓗ ᒥᑭᓛᖑᔪᖅ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᐸ?
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃ 2.70%, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓪᓗᓂᐅᒃ.
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᒃ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐊ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐊᓂᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖓᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ. ᐊᓯᐊ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᓐᓂᖅ, ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ, ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 1/37.
ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ (1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃ, ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᓪᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ 2.70%.
ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᑕᑯᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐃᓕᔪᓐᓇᖅᐸᐃᑦ ᑐᓂᓯᒻᒪᕆᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ: 0 ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ 37 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 36-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ. ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᑐᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᓱᓇᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ. ᓈᓴᐃᓃᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐅᕙᓂ ᑖᔅᓱᒥᖓ ᑐᖓᕕᖃᖅᑐᑦ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”