ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᑦ
“ᓴᕙᓐᑏᓐ 150 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ.” ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑯᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂ ᐊᓯᖏᑎᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ: 1/37. “ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ” ᐅᑉᐱᕆᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᖅᑕᖓ, ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᓕᒃ.
ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖅ
ᑳᓯᓄᑦ ᑭᖑᓪᓕᖅᐹᓂᒃ 20-ᒥᑦ 500-ᒧᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᔮᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᕙᒃᐳᑦ “ᐃᒃᑮᔪᓂᒡᓗ” ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᐊᑯᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒐᔪᒃᓗᑎᒃ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᖅᐳᑦ, 17 150 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᓚᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᓪᓗᑎᒃ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᓪᓗᒍᓗ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᑎᑐᑦ. ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ: ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ 1/37-ᒥ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅᐳᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑭᖑᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᐃᑉᐱᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ.
ᓲᖃᐃᒻᒪ ᓱᓕᙱᒻᒪᑦ
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐊᑦᑐᐃᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᐊᖅᓴᖅᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐊᖅᓴᖅᒥᑭᔪᖅ ᐊᖅᓴᖅ ᐊᖁᑎᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᑉ ᐊᑉᐱᖓᓄᑦ ᐃᒋᑕᐅᔪᖅ. ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᖅᓵᑦ ᐃᕗᕆᓐ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑎᕙᓚᓐ, 18–21 mm.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 17-ᐅᑉ ᐱᑕᖃᓚᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐃᓂᓗᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᖏᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ. ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᓕᖅᐳᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᕐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ, ᐋᖅᑭᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐅᓐᓂ: ᐊᓯᖏᑦ 10,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂ 150 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᒥᑭᑦᑐᑯᓗᐃᓐᓇᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ, 17 ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᓚᐅᙱᒻᒪᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᓚᐅᕐᒪᑕ. ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖓᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖓ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᓂᒡᓕᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥᒃ ᐊᐃᑉᐱᖃᖁᔨᙱᑦᑐᖅ; ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓃᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᒥᑭᓕᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐅᓐᓂ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
ᓲᖃᐃᒻᒪ ᓱᓕᔪᑎᑐᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᕙ
ᐃᓅᓯᐅᑉ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᑎᑭᓐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒻᒪᑦ: ᐃᖏᕐᕋᐅᑎ ᐃᓄᖕᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᒋᐊᖅᓯᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᑐᐊᓐᑎ ᒥᓂᑦ ᑎᑭᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂ ᒥᓂᑦᓂ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂ ᑎᑭᑦᑐᓴᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᓕᐅᖅᓯᒪᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᓕᒃᑐᒻᒪᑕ. ᕉᓚᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᓕᐅᖅᓯᒪᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ; ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᓗ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑕᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᓯᓚᕐᔪᐊᕐᒥ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᐸᓂ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒧᓪᓗ ᓱᓕᙱᓪᓗᓂ.
ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ
ᕼᐊᓐᑐᕆᑦ “ᐃᒃᑮᔪᑦ” ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᓗᒋᑦ 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂ. ᑐᑭᓪᓕᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ 1/37-ᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓪᓗᒍ, ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓂᖅ ᐃᓚᓗᒍ. ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖏᑦ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ ᐱᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᑦ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓯᕗᓂᒃᓴᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᒥᓗ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᓇᓂᖓᑕ ᐊᑲᐅᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᓂᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒃ 1/37-ᒥᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ. ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᑦᓯᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑕᐅᓴᓐ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᒍᑎᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → (ᑕᐅᓴᓐᓂᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᔭᕆᐊᓕᒃ) ᐆᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᒫᓐᓇᑲᓪᓚᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᕈᓘᔭᕐᓂᖅᓴᐃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᙱᑦᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐃᒃᑮᔪᑦ ᐅᓐᓂ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᒃᓴᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᑦ.
ᐅᑎᖅᑕᖅ ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅ
“ᓴᕙᓐᑏᓐ ᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᓗᒍ” ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐅᑎᖅᑕᖅ. ᐅᑉᐱᕆᔭᐅᔪᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᔨᒃᑭ ᒪᑐᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᑎᑭᐅᑎᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓪᓗᒍ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ −2.70%-ᖓ. ᐆᒃᑐᕋᐅᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥ, ᐱᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᓗᒋᑦ ᓈᓴᕐᓗᒍᓗ ᐃᒃᑮᔪᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅᐃᒃᑮᔪᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓯᕗᓂᒃᓴᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᒋᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᒐᔪᒻᒪᖔᑦ; ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ 63.7% ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ, ᐊᓯᖏᑎᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᒥᒃ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐊᐱᕆᒐᔪᒻᒪᑕ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓇᓐᖏᓪᓗᓂᓗ.
(36/37)⁵⁰⁰ ≈ 0.0001%: ᖃᑦᑕᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂᓗ ᓱᓕ 1/37. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐱᒐᔪᒃᐸᑦ, ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᐅᔪᖅ, ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᙱᓪᓗᒍ.
ᐋᒃᑲ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑕᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.