ᕉᓚᑦ: ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ · ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ · 7 ᒥᓂᑦ

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᑎᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ: ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᓪᓗᐊᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᓂᖓ.

ᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ = ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ × 1/37. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ $10, 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ: $1,000 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ, $27 ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᒪᑕ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᕙᒃᑐᑦ.

$1-ᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ
$0.027
$10 × 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ
$27
$10 × 50/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
$13.50 / ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
ᐊᕐᕌᒍᒧᑦ, ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᕐᒥ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ
≈ $700

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐱᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᒋᑦ

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃᑯᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᓪᓗᐊᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒪᓕᒃᑐᖅ, ᖃᓄᐃᓪᓗᐊᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᑎᒍᒥᐊᖅᓯᒪᔭᕐᓂᒃ ᒪᓕᒃᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ. $100 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔭᐅᔪᑦ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᓂᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᑦᓯᓂᖅ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᔅᓯᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂᓗ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᓯᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑕᐅᓂᐊᕐᒪᖔᑕ ᐃᓱᒪᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᒥᓱᐊᖅᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᑲᓐᓂᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ $2,000-ᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᖃᑦᑕᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐃᓚᓗᒋᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᕼᐋᓐᑐᓪ, ᐋᒃᓴᓐ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → $54-ᓂᒡᓗ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᕈᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ; $10,000 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ $10,000-ᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ $270-ᓂᒡᓗ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᑦ. ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᖓ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑐᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ.

ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ

E[ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ] = Σ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ / 37. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᑖᓐᓇ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ / 37. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᕐᒧᑦᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᒪᓕᒡᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᔪᖅ. ᐊᑲᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᖁᕝᕙᑦᑎᔪᑦ, ᐱᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑖᓐᓇ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ / 37, ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎᒥᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᓂ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᓂ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᕙᒻᒪᑕ. ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᖓᓂ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕐᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓗ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → $10 ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎᒥᑦ $500 ᑭᒡᓕᖓᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ $28 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ $10 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᓪᓗᓂ.

ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ $10$10$1,000$27
ᑕᓚᒻᐱᐅᕐ, $10 ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎ≈ $14≈ $1,400≈ $38
ᕕᐳᓈᑦᓯ, $10 ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎ≈ $17≈ $1,700≈ $45
ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪ, $10 ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎ, $500 ᑭᒡᓕᖓ≈ $28≈ $2,800≈ $75
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ $10, ᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ$10$1,000$13.50
ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ. ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᑖᓚᒧᑦ 2.70% ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᓂ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᑭᖑᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᐱᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᒍ.

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ

ᓱᒃᑲᐃᓐᓂᖓ

ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ 40–60 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᑦᓯᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑳᓯᓄᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ 30–50, ᓱᒃᑲᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ 90 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ, RNG ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᓇᕐᓂᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇᖅᐸᑦᑎᑦ ᓱᒃᑲᐃᓐᓂᖓᓂ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂ, ᓱᒃᑲᐃᓐᓂᖓ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅᐹᖑᔪᖅ: ᑳᓯᓄᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥᑦ ᐃᒡᓯᑦᑐᒥᑦ RNG ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒧᑦ 200 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᓅᓐᓂᖅ ᐅᓐᓄᐊᑉ ᐊᑭᖓᓂᒃ ᓯᑕᒪᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑕᐅᙱᓪᓗᑎᒃ.

ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ $10-ᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ$ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ
ᑳᓯᓄᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ · 40/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
$10.81
ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ · 55/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
$14.86
ᓱᒃᑲᔪᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᖅ · 100/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
$27.03
RNG · 200/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
$54.05
$ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ
027.03$54.05
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ / 37. ᓱᒃᑲᐃᓐᓂᖓ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᐅᑉ ᐊᑭᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅᐹᖑᔪᖅ.

ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᕉᓚᑦ RNG ᕉᓚᓪᓗ

ᐊᕐᕌᒍᒥ

ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑐᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᕐᒥ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂᒃ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓂᒃ $10-ᒥ 50 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒻᒥ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᕐᕌᒍᒧᑦ $52,000-ᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ $1,400 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᓱᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ, $700 ᕖᓇᓯ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ, $2,700 ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ. ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᖃᓱᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖓ ᖃᓱᕐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥᒡᓗ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᖅ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᓂᑦ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᕐᓂᑦ ᐃᓱᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ, ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᓯᕉᒥᒃᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᒪᑕ.

ᐊᕐᕌᒍᒧᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ: 2 ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒃ/ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᖅ, $10 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ, 50 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ$
ᕖᓇᓯ (ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ)
$702
ᐃᐅᕌᐸ
$1,405
ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ
$2,737
ᓱᒃᑲᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ, ᐃᐅᕌᐸ, 100/ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ
$2,811
$
01405.50$2,811

ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᓐᓂᑦ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᕐᓂᑦ ᐊᑭᑦᑐᓂᖅᓴᖅ

ᓴᓐ ᐲᑐᓴᐳᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖓ, ᓂᑯᓚᔅ ᐳᕐᓄᓕᐅᑉ (Nicolaus Bernoulli) 1713-ᒥ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᒋᔭᖓ, ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᒥᒃ ᒥᓯᒃᓯᔪᖅ ᓂᐊᖁᖓ ᖁᓛᓄᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᓐᓇᒍ ᐊᒻᒪ $2 ᐊᑭᓕᖅᓱᖅᓗᓂ ᒥᓯᒃᓯᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᐸᑦ, $4 ᒪᕐᕉᒃ, $8 ᐱᖓᓱᑦ, ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ. ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖓ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ $1 ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᖓᓄᑦᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐃᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᔾᔪᑎᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓱᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᒃ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐃᓱᖃᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᓱᖅᑐᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑏᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑎᒍᓯᒪᔭᖓᓄᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑎᑕᐅᓕᖅᐸᑕ, ᐊᑭᖓ ᒥᑭᓕᐊᓗᒃᑐᖅ: $1 ᒥᓕᐊᓐ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᖃᖅᓗᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ $21 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ, $1 ᐱᓕᐊᓐ $31 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ. ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐊᓂᑦ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᖅ. ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓᓂ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒥᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᕕᐅᓐᖏᑦᑐᒥ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᒥ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᓂ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᓂ; ᑭᒡᓕᖃᙱᑉᐸᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᑦ, ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᐸᓪᓗ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᓂᐊᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒥᑭᓛᖅ ᐊᖏᓛᕐᓗ ᐊᖏᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ. ᐊᖏᓛᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᖏᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓱᕋᐃᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᔪᖅ, ᓱᕋᐃᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓐᖏᓪᓗᓂ.

ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᓱᖅᑐᓐᓇᖅᑕᖓ ᐅᕙᓄᖓ ᑎᑭᓪᓗᒍᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ
$100$7.56
$10,000$14.22
$1 ᒥᓕᐊᓐ$20.91
$1 ᐱᓕᐊᓐ$30.86
ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ, ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᐅᖓᑖᓂᑦᑐᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᑉᐸᑦ.
ᓴᓐ ᐲᑐᓴᐳᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖓ: ᐃᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᔾᔪᑎᒥ ᐃᓱᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ, $21 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᕕᒃ $1 ᒥᓕᐊᓐ ᑎᒍᓯᒪᓕᖅᐸᑦ.

ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖏᑦ

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ

ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ. 100 ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ $10-ᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → $100-ᖑᔪᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ −$27 ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᓪᓗᒍ; ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᑐᐊᕕᕐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ; ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐳᔾᔪᖓ; ᐅᓐᓄᐊᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ.

ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ

E[ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ] = Σ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ / 37
E[ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ] = ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ / 37

ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ

ᑳᓯᓄ ᓯᑉᐳᓂᒃ ᓂᐅᕕᕐᓂᓐᓂᑦ 2.70%-ᒥᒃ ᐱᕙ?

ᐋᒡᒐ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᑎᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂᑦ 2.70%. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᑲᓐᓂᕐᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᑲᓐᓂᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ.

ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᑕᒪᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇ ᐊᑭᑭᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙ?

ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ, ᐄ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥ ᓱᒃᑲᐃᓐᓂᖓᓂ. ᑐᕌᒐᕐᒧᑦ ᑎᑭᑕᐅᔪᒧᑦ, ᐋᒡᒐ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᓂᐊᕐᓂᖏᑦᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᓂᐊᕐᓂᖏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑕᐅᓂᐊᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᑐᕌᒐᖅ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᑎᑭᐅᑎᔭᐅᓚᐅᖅᑎᓐᓇᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᑯᓗᒋᑦ.

ᐊᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᑐᖅᐸᑦ?

ᑳᓯᓄᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᓂᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖓᓗ ᐊᑐᖅᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᓂᒃ. ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ, ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᐃᓕᔾᔪᑎᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᑦ.

ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ × 1/37. ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎᒥ ᐃᓚᐅᔪᖅ.

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ × 1/37. ᐃᑲᕐᕋᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎᒥ ᐃᓚᐅᔪᖅ.

ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ

  1. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. ᐃᓚᖓ 13, ᕉᓚᑦ.
  2. Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.
  3. Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2021.
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