ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᖏᑦ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓪᓗ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᓪᓗ, ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖏᓪᓗᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖏᓪᓗ.
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ −2.70%-ᖓᓂᒃ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᓗ ᑐᐊᖅ.
ᖃᓄᖅ ᐅᓇ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᖏᑦ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒋᑦ
ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᐅᑉᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔭᑎᑦ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᑲᐅᓪᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᓚᐅᕐᓂᐊᕐᒪᖔᑦ; ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐅᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᕉᓚᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑎᑐᑦ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ, ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔭᑎᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᓪᓗ ᐊᒥᓱᑎᒋᒻᒪᖔᑦ; σ ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔭᑎᑦ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐊᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᐊᕐᒪᖔᑦ. EV ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᑦᔨᓂ ᓴᓇᔭᐅᓂᖓᑎᒍᑦ; ᑕᐃᒪ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᑦ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕆᐊᓕᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᕐᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐅᖃᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ
ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓄᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒡᓗ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᑦ. ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᓯᑉᐳᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᒻᒪᑕ.
ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ
k ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓃᑦ, ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ ᐊᐱᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᑦ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓄᑦ.
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ
100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᑕ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, $10 ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᓂ; ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ −$27.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ 36/n − 1-ᖑᒻᒪᑕ, ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ 37/n − 1-ᖑᓗᐊᕆᐊᖃᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ. ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓄᑦᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒪᑉᐱᒐᖅ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ/ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ/ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ/ᒥᑭᔪᑦ. 18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 1:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᕖᓇᓯ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖓᓂ: p ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓗ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᑦᑐᒃ, EV −1.35%, σ ≈ 0.99.
37-ᒥᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᓇᓂ 38-ᒥᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᓗᑎᑦ, EV ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ −5.26%-ᖑᓕᖅᑐᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᑦᔨᓂ, −7.89% ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ, ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐃᖃᐅᒪᔾᔪᑎᖃᙱᑦᑐᑦ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.