ᔭᐃᒻᔅ ᐹᓐᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ 20 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ: 14 19–36-ᒧᑦ, 5 13–18 ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ, 1 ᓯᕉᒧᑦ.
37-ᓂᑦ 25 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ 67.6%-ᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ. 1–12-ᒥ 20 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑦ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →: 20 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ −2.70%-ᖏᑦ, ᐊᓯᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᑦᑎᑐᑦ.
ᔭᐃᒻᔅ ᐹᓐᑦ (007) ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓱᓇᐅᕙ?
ᑐᐃᓐᑎ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ, ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ: 14 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᖏᔪᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ (19–36), 5 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᓂ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᓂ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 5:1. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓯᓴᓐ (sixain).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 13–18, 1 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᕉᒧᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᑐᐃᓐᑎ ᕙᐃᕝ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ; ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ 1-ᒥᑦ 12-ᒧᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᑕᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᐊᑎᖓ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᙱᓪᓗᒍ, ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᐊᓐ ᕙᓕᒥᖕ (Ian Fleming) ᐅᓂᒃᑳᖏᓐᓂ ᐃᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ: Casino Royale-ᒥ (1953) ᐹᓐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᐊᖏᓛᖓᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑐᖅ. ᑭᓇ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᒥᒃ ᐹᓐᑦ ᐊᑎᖓᓂᒃ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑎᖅᑖᕆᓚᐅᖅᐸ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᖃᓄᑎᒋ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᐸ?
19–36 ᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ (18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ): ᐊᖏᔪᑦ 14-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓯᕉᓗ 6-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒃ, ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ +8. 13–18 ᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ (6 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ): ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 25-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ ᓯᕉᓗ 15-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒃ, ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ +10. ᓯᕉ ᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ: 35 − 19 = +16. 1–12 ᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ (12 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ): ᑕᒪᐃᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑦ, −20.
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᖓᕙ?
ᐱᖓᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓂ 8-ᒥᑦ 16-ᒧᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐊᖅᑕᑎᑦ; ᐱᖓᓱᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ 20 ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐊᖅᑕᑎᑦ. 37 ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ: 18 × 8 + 6 × 10 + 16 = 220 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ, 12 × 20 = 240 ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔭᐅᔪᑦ, ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ −20, 740 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᑎᑐᑦ ᐃᑉᐱᒍᓱᒃᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᕐᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᒪᑦ, ᐱᖓᓱᐊᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᕕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᕕᐅᔪᒃ ᐱᔭᖏᓐᓂᑦ. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐅᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓᒍᑦ, ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᒥᑭᓐᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓂᖅᓴᖓ.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$360
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$280
ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᑭᖑᐊᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓯᒃᐸᑦ?
ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᑭᖑᐊᓂ (1–12) ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓯᔪᑦ. ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ 32.4%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᒃ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᒃ ᖁᓕᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᐸᒃᑐᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓗ 80 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓱᒃᑲᐃᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᑎᑭᑦᑐᖅ; ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒥᑭᓛᖅ ᐊᖏᓛᕐᓗ ᐊᖏᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ. ᐊᖏᓛᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᖏᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → $500 ᑲᑎᑕᐅᔪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᓐᓄᑦ $1 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓂ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᐊᓂ ᑎᑭᑕᐅᔪᖅ (20, 40, 80, 160, 320, ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ 640). ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᖓᓂ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕐᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓗ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᓪᓚᕐᓂᖓ ᐃᑳᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓪᓗ −2.70%.
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᒋᔭᐅᕙ?
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᑕᑯᒃᓴᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᖅ: ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ, ᓯᑕᒪᑦ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᓗ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᖏᓐᓂ. ᓯᕉᒧᑦ ᓯᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᓗᐊᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᓴᐳᔾᔨᔪᑎᑐᑦ ᐃᑉᐱᒍᓱᒃᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᐃᖃᐅᒪᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᑦᑎᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᒧᓪᓗ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᓐᓇᑦᑎᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ ᐊᔪᕆᖅᓱᐃᓂᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ; ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑐᓴᐅᒪᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᑎᓕᒃ. ᖃᐅᔨᒪᓗᒍ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐱᖓᓱᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᖃᓄᑎᒋ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᓂᖓ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᑭᓱᓂᑦ, ᓇᓂᓯᓯᒪᔭᑦᑎᓐᓂ. Casino Royale-ᒥ (1953) ᐹᓐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑐᖅ; ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᐊᑎᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑎᖅᑖᖅᑐᑦ.
ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᖁᓪᓗᒍ. ᐊᖏᒡᓕᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ (140/50/10) ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᑦᑐᑦ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ: ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᑕᓴᓐᑦ +1 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒥᒃ 64.9%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᒃ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᓗ 2-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᑎᒃ; ᐅᓇ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ +8-ᒥᑦ +16-ᒧᑦ 20 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ 67.6%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᓗ 20-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᑎᒃ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᑐᐊᑎ ᓰᕙᓐ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᑐᐃᓐᑎ ᕙᐃᕝ. ᐊᓯᖏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᐊᑭᖏᑦ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Fleming, I. Casino Royale.