ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᕝᕕᒋᔭᕆᐊᓕᖓ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒥᑭᓛᖑᔪᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓄᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓄᓪᓗ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ / 37 ᑭᓯᐊᓂ.
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᕝᕕᐅᕙ
ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᒪᓕᒡᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᔪᖅ. ᐊᑲᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᖁᕝᕙᑦᑎᔪᑦ, ᐱᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᑕᖃᙱᑦᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᑎᒋ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᑦ ᐃᑦᑎᕙᓚᐅᖅᑎᓐᓇᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᓕᖅᑐᖅ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓱᐃᓕᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ. ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᒥᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᑦᑐᑕ 1/37-ᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᖁᕝᕙᓯᒃᑲᒪᑕ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᓯᔭᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑭᑭᓛᖑᔪᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᑭᓱᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓂᖓᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᑭᓱᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᑎᓪᓗᒍ.
ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ: ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ 42%-ᖏᑦ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓᓂ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑐᑦ, ᐊᑯᖏᓐᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ ±$200 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ $10-ᒥ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᖓᔾᔮᙱᑦᑐᑦ (ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ 5%-ᖏᑦ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓᓂ). ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᓄᐊᓇᑦᑎᑐᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᕿᑎᖓ −$27, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → $100. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᕿᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓗ $584: ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ (31% ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓᓂ) ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓪᓗ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓚᕆᒃᓗᑎᒃ.
- p10 −$420
- p25 −$280
- ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$140
- p75 +$20
- p90 +$160
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᖅ
ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ / 37. ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓕᑦᑎᓐᓄᑦ ᖁᕕᐊᓱᒃᑕᐅᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᖃᓄᑎᒋ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᓕᐅᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᐊᖅᑕᕐᓂ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᓗᒍ, 37-ᒥᒡᓗ ᐊᒥᓱᐃᓕᓗᒍ. 50 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒻᒥ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ, $10 ᐃᑲᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅ $7.40 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᐃᓄᐃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᑭᓯᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ, ᒥᑭᓐᓂᖅᓗ ᖁᕕᐊᓇᙱᓐᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐃᑉᐱᒍᓱᒃᑎᑦᓯᔪᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᔪᑦ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᓕᒃ
ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᖏᓂᖓ, ᑎᑭᐅᑎᒍᕕᐅᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᐃᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᑐᕌᒐᖓ, ᑎᑭᐅᑎᒍᕕᐅᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᐃᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →-ᓗ ᐃᓚᓗᒋᒃ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓂᐅᕕᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᐅᓚᑦᑕᐅᔪᑉ ᖃᓂᓪᓕᓛᖓᓄᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ: ᑭᒡᓕᖓ ᐊᑭᖓ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᖅᐱᑦ, ᖃᖓ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᖅᐱᑦ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓗᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᕐᓄᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᖁᕕᐊᓇᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑕᒪᓐᓇᓗ ᑐᑭᖓ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᓐᓇᙱᓚ
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓂ 42% ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓᓂᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑐᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐅᓐᓄᐊᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᑉᐱᒍᓱᒃᑐᒪᔪᑦ ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᒧᑦᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᖓᓂ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕐᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓗ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᖃᓂᓪᓕᒋᐊᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᑦᑐᒥᒡᓗ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᖅᑐᑦ.
ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎ · ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ
2,000 ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓂᒃ, $1,000 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᓂᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓗᓂ.
ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ $10 · ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓ $500 · 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᖃᙱᓐᓂᐅᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᑭᓛᖑᔪᖅ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᖁᕕᐊᒋᔭᐃᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᓴᐃᒻᒪᑦᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᕐᒧᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓛᑎᕆ ᐃᑉᐱᒍᓱᒃᑐᒪᒃᐸᑦ. ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ.
ᑕᒪᐃᑦ ᕖᓇᓯ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕖᓐᓂ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᑦᑎᔪᑦ: ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᕿᑎᐊᒍᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᖅ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ / 37. ᐃᔨᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- RouletteDoc. Strategy description and examples.
- Roulette77. Strategy description and examples.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.