ᕉᓚᑦ: ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃ · ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃ · ᖃᓄᖅ ᐱᓕᕆᓂᖅ · 9 ᒥᓂᑦ

ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᓄᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᔪᓐᓇᖅᐱᑦ

ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᓈᓴᐃᓗᑎᑦ, ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑎᑎᕋᒋᐊᓪᓚᓗᑎᑦ: ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ.

ᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ

ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᑦ ᑕᐅᓴᓐᓂᒃ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᑲᑎᖅᓱᐃᓗᑎᑦ, ᐃᓂ ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᖃᑦᓯᐊᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓈᓴᕐᓗᒍ, ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐃᓂ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ n/37-ᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᒻᒪᖔᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒍ, ᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᓪᓗ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᐊᓂᒃ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᑲᑎᖅᓱᐃᒋᐊᕈᑎᒋᓗᒍ.

ᒥᑭᓛᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ
~1,000
ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ
ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ, df 36
ᓱᓕᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᖅ
ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑐᒡᓕᐊᑦ
ᐊᑐᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ
10,000+

1. ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓂᖅ

ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ ᑕᑯᑎᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐅᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᓗᑎᒡᓗ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓇᓕᐊᐅᓂᖓ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓗᒍ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᖁᓛᓂᒃᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᖁᓛᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᓚᖓ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᒃ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓪᓗᐊᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓪᓗᐊᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓯᓚᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐃᓚᖓ: ᕿᔪᒻᒥᒃ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓴᓇᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᓯᓈ ᐊᖅᓴᐅᑉ ᐊᖁᑎᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐊᑖᓂᒡᓗ ᑎᒍᒥᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖃᑦᑕᖅᐸᒃᑐᑦ, ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᕐᓗ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᒧᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᓇᓂ. ᐅᓪᓗᖓ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᖓᓗ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓗᒋᑦ; ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐅᓪᓗᒥ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᖃᐅᑉᐸᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᐅᑎᖏᑦ ᓄᑖᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ. ᑕᐅᓴᓐ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᒥᑭᓛᖑᔪᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᕈᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᕐᒪᑦ; ᖁᓕᑦ ᑕᐅᓴᓐ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᓕᕐᕕᐅᔪᖅ.

ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓂᖏᑦ

2. ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᕐᓗ

ᐃᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᖃᑦᓯᐊᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓈᓴᕐᓗᒍ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ n/37 ᑕᒪᑐᒪᓄᑦ. ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖓ ᓈᓴᕐᓗᒍ, Σ (ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ − ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ)² / ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ, 37 ᐃᓂᓂ, ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅᓪᓗ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ 36 ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ. 37 ᐃᓂᓂ ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᒥ 36, ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᖃᕆᐊᖃᕐᒪᑕ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓇᓪᓕᒋᓗᒍ. ᑖᔅᓱᒪ ᑐᑭᒧᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐃᓂᑦᑎᐊᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕈᑎᒥ ᐱᓕᕆᔪᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒡᓗᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᑯᓗᒋᑦ: ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐱᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐃᓂᓂᒃ ᐊᑦᑐᐃᕙᒃᑐᖅ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉᓗ ᐃᓚᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᙱᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ 37 ᐃᓂᓄᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᓂᑦ.

1,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᑦ (ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ): ᐃᓂᒧᑦ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓃᑦ
0
32
15
19
4
21
2
25
17
34
6
27
13
36
11
30
8
23
10
5
24
16
33
1
20
14
31
9
22
18
29
7
28
12
35
3
26
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ 27 ᐃᓂᒧᑦ. ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᑕᑯᔭᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓂᖅ ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊᖑᓪᓗᐊᑕᖅ: ᐆᓇᖅᐹᖅ ᐃᓂ ᒫᓂ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ 36-ᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᓱᓇᒥᒡᓗ ᑐᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.0 ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓃᑦ40 ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓃᑦ

ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ

3. ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓂᖅ

ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓗᒋᑦ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᓄᑖᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᓕᓐᓂᒃ ᑲᑎᖅᓱᐃᓗᑎᑦ. ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᕙᒃᑐᖅ; ᐊᔪᕐᓂᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᓇᓂ. ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ 5%-ᒥ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᐅᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᓗ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑐᖅ ᑕᒪᒃᑭᓂᖓ ᓇᓂᓯᖃᑦᑕᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓚᐅᖅᓗᓂ ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪᓂ ᑐᓐᖓᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐆᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ 2.70%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᓕᖅᓯᓂᐊᕐᒪᖔᑕ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᑦ ᓈᓴᕐᓂᖅ.

1,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᑦ ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᐅᙱᓐᓂᓕᒻᒥᑦ (ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ): ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ 8–23–10 ᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ
0
32
15
19
4
21
2
25
17
34
6
27
13
36
11
30
8
23
10
5
24
16
33
1
20
14
31
9
22
18
29
7
28
12
35
3
26
ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᒋᐊᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᖃᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑦᑎᓕᐊᖅᓯᒪᒃᐸᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᐅᑎᖓᓗᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᐅᓚᔪᓐᓇᓕᖅᐸᑦ, ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒡᓗ ᑐᒡᓕᐊᓂᒃ ᓱᓕᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ.0 ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓃᑦ49 ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓃᑦ

4. ᐊᑦᑐᐃᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᖏᓂᖓ

ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᓂᖓ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᙱᓐᓇᔭᖅᑐᖅ. ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓂᒥᒃ 1/36-ᒥ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 35, 1-ᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᕐᒪᑦ. ᐃᓂ 1,000-ᓂ 40-ᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ 1/25, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐊᖏᔪᐊᓘᑉ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᓱᓕᒃᐸᑦ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ 2.5-ᓯᒡᒪ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᖑᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ; ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑐᒡᓕᐊᑦ 1,000 ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᒋᐊᖅᑐᑎᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᑦ 40 ± 6-ᒥ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᓱᓕᒃᐸᑦ, 27 ± 5-ᒥᓪᓗ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓂᐅᒃᐸᑦ.

ᐃᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᓐᓂᖓᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ EVᓱᓕᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ (ᐊᒡᒐᖓ)
1/37 (ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ)−2.70%—
1/360.00%≈ 1,000,000
1/35+2.86%≈ 70,000
1/33+9.1%≈ 10,000
1/30+20%≈ 4,400
1/25+44%≈ 1,100
ᖃᐅᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ 80% ᓴᙱᓂᖓᓂ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᓴᓂᐊᓂ 5%. ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓃᑦ ᐱᔪᒪᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᑕᐅᓴᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᓗᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᓂᐊᕐᓗᑎᒃ.

ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ: ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᓂ ᑳᓯᓄᓂ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓂᖅ

ᐱᐅᓯᑐᖃᒃᑯᑦ: ᐆᓇᖅᑐᒧᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ, ᑳᓯᓄ ᖃᐅᔨᓚᐅᖅᓯᓐᓇᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᓐᓇᐃᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᓗᓐᓃᑦ ᐲᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ. ᒑᓯᐊ-ᐱᓛᔪ (García-Pelayo) ᐃᓚᒌᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᐱᓕᕆᓚᐅᖅᑐᑦ ᒫᑦᕆᑦ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ 1990-ᖏᓐᓂ ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂ, ᑳᓯᓅᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᓐᓇᐃᖅᑎᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᓯᐸᐃᓐ ᐃᖅᑲᖅᑐᐃᕝᕕᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᓚᐅᖅᑕᖏᑦ. ᒫᓐᓇ ᑳᓯᓄᐃᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᓂᒃᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐃᓂᓂᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᓕᒃ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓪᓗᐊᓂ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖃᑦᑕᖅᐸᒃᑐᑦ ᐃᓂᓂᒡᓗ ᐱᕕᖃᖅᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᓈᓴᐃᕙᒃᓗᑎᒃ; ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᐊᖏᓗᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᑕᐅᓴᓐᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐋᖅᑭᒋᐊᖅᓯᓂᐅᑉ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᐱᑕᖃᐃᓐᓇᙱᓐᓇᔭᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᓕᕆᔾᔪᓯᖓ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᓂ ᑳᓯᓄᓂ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᕙᓗᐊᖅᑐᖅ: ᐱᕕᒃᓴᖅ ᐱᓕᕆᓂᕐᒥ ᐱᑕᖃᐃᓕᓚᐅᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ.

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᑐᓴᖅᑕᐅᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦᒎᓴᓗ ᒑᓯᐊ-ᐱᓚᔪ: ᕉᓚᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ

ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ ᐃᓂ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖑᐃᓐᓇᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ

ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ ᐃᓂ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓗᒍ ᑭᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᒍ ᓂᓪᓕᐅᑎᐅᔪᖅ, ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᒥᒃ ᐃᓂᖃᐃᓐᓇᕐᒪᑦ. 3,700 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᐃᓂ ᑕᒪᑐᒪ 100-ᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖃᕐᓂᖓ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ 122-ᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᑎᕙᒃᑐᖅ, ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᓪᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᓂᑦ 131-ᓂᒃ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ. ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐸᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ 79-ᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᑎᕙᒃᑐᖅ. ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐃᓂ 125-ᒥ 3,700 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᓇᓂᓯᓂᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᓇᓪᓕᒋᓗᒍ, 100-ᒧᑦ ᐱᓇᓂ.

ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ ᐃᓂ 3,700 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ122
ᕿᑎᐊᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ121
ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ 1, 20-ᓂᑦ131 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ
ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ 1, 100-ᓂᑦ136 ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓗ
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ, 100 ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓂᒧᑦ. 20,000 ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐆᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᔪᑦ.
ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᒥᒃ ᐃᓂᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ: ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖓᓄᑦ ᓇᓪᓕᒋᓗᒍ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐱᓇᓂ.

ᑕᒻᒪᖃᑦᑕᕐᓂᖅ

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᓂᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᖁᓛᓂᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᑲᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅ. ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑕᑯᓚᐅᖅᓗᒋᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᐅᙱᓛᖑᔪᑐᑦ ᑕᑯᓐᓇᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᑲᑎᖅᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᓗᓂ. ᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᖅᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᒫᓐᓇᑲᓪᓚᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᕈᓘᔭᕐᓂᖅᓴᐃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᙱᑦᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 200 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑕᐅᑐᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓂᖓ. ᐃᖅᑲᐅᒪᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᓕᐅᖅᓯᒪᒻᒪᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᐅᑉ ᐃᓕᖁᓯᖓ ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᒋᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᓂ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓴᓇᓯᒪᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᐱᐅᒋᔭᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᙱᑉᐸᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ.

ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᐅᑉ ᐃᓕᖁᓯᖓ

ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ

ᖃᑕᓐᖏᓂᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᐱᖓ?

1,000 ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᕐᒪᑦ; ᑕᐅᓴᓐᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᐱᔪᒪᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᓂᐊᕐᒪᑦ; ᑕᐅᓴᓐᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᓗᐃᑦ ᓱᓕᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ.

ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖅᐱᖓ?

ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓪᓗ ᐊᒥᓲᓗᐊᕐᓂᑦᑐᑦ ᑕᑯᑎᑕᐅᒃᐸᑕ ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊᖑᓪᓗᐊᑕᖅ. ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ 20-ᒥᑦ 500-ᒧᑦ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᑎᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᓈᒻᒪᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓱᓕᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᕙ?

ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᓯᐅᖅᑎᑦᑎᙱᓐᓇᔭᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ. ᐃᓂ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐱᓇᓂ, ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓᓗ ᑲᔪᓰᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐱᓇᓂ.

ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ

ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.

  1. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᑐᖁᓯᒪᔪᒥ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓂᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᑎᔾᔪᓐᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ, ᐊᖅᓴᕐᓗᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐊᖅᓴᖅᒥᑭᔪᖅ ᐊᖅᓴᖅ ᐊᖁᑎᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᑉ ᐊᑉᐱᖓᓄᑦ ᐃᒋᑕᐅᔪᖅ. ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᖅᓵᑦ ᐃᕗᕆᓐ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑎᕙᓚᓐ, 18–21 mm.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᐊᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᒃᑲᓐᓂᖅᑐᖅ ᓴᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᓄᑦ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓂᓄᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ 37 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 15-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᕐᓗ 21-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᒧᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᒫᓐᓇ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᐸᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᔪᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᕙᑦ?

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ 18.9%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ; ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ 13.5%-ᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ.

    ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ 37 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 15-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ 22-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ: (15 − 22)/37 = −18.9%. ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ 21-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ 16-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ: (21 − 16)/37 = +13.5%.

    ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓄᑦ ᓴᓂᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓯᒪᔪᒧᑦ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᑕᕐᕋᖓᓂᒃ ᑕᒻᒪᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑐᒧᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᒥᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᕼᐅᓇᓴᒃ (Hunacek, 2025) ᐊᔾᔨᐸᓗᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐆᒃᑑᑎᒥᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ.

    37 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᖏᓗᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᓯᖁᒥᓯᒪᓂᖅ. ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᐹᒥ ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᐃᓚᖓᑐᐊᖅ, ᑕᐅᓴᓐᓂᓪᓗ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᓂᐊᕐᒪᑦ, ᑕᒫᓂ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᕐᒥ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᑕᐅᓂᖓᑐᑦ.

ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ

ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᓈᓴᐃᓗᑎᑦ, ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓗᑎᑦ. ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓂᖅ ᐊᑉᓯᓇᓛᖅ.

ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᓈᓴᐃᓗᑎᑦ, ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓗᑎᑦ. ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓂᖅ ᐊᑉᓯᓇᓛᖅ.

ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900.
  2. Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel. Lyle Stuart, 1992.
  3. Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. ᐃᓚᖓ 13, ᕉᓚᑦ.
  4. Wizard of Odds. “Hot Numbers in Roulette: Myths and Facts.” ᓄᑖᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᐅᒡᒍᓯ 3, 2026.
ᕉᓚᑦ: ᓴᓇᕐᕈᑏᑦᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᕉᓚᑦ: ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦᕉᓚᑦ: ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᖅᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᕿᓂᖅᑎᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦᐋᓐᑐᕈᑦᓯ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᕿᒥᕐᕈᔭᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ 2026-09-28ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᖃᓄᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ↗ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ↗