ᕉᓚᑦ: ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ · ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ · 8 ᒥᓂᑦ

ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ, ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓪᓗ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑏᑦ (matchplay), ᑮᓇᐅᔭᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦ, ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᓗ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ, ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒥᒃ ᒥᑭᔪᒥᒃ ᑳᓯᓄᒥᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᓄᑦᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ. ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᖅᑕᐅᒃᐸᑕ, ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐱᔭᖓᓂᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ.

ᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ

ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒻᒥ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ 46%-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᖅ ᓯᑉ, n ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔪᒥ, ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖓᑕ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ (36 − n)/37-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ: 95% ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ, 49% ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ. ᓇᑉᐸᖓ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᓄᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ ᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕆᐊᓕᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ. ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᓯᙱᑕᖓ; ᑭᓇ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑐᖃᕐᒪᖔᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᓯᔪᑦ.

ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ +45.9%-ᖓ
$100 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓯᑉ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ
$94.59 ᐊᑭᓕᒃ
ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᖓ ᓯᑉ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ
$48.65 ᐊᑭᓕᒃ
50% ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ
ᐱᐅᓛᖅ 25 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ

ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᖅ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᐃᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᓐᓇᕐᒪᑦ

ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐊᕆᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑭᐅᔪᖅ: 2.70% ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ. ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐊᓄᑦ ᓴᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔪᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓗ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ 2.70%-ᖓᓂᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᒃᐸᑦ, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓯᕉᐅᑉ ᐅᖓᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᖅ ᐱᑕᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ. ᑳᓯᓄᐃᑦ ᑐᓂᓯᕙᒃᑐᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᕐᒪᑕ: ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐳᓛᕆᐊᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᓂ, ᓯᑉᐳᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᓗᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᓄᑦ ᑐᐊᖅ. ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᖓ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᓂ ᐅᕙᓂ: ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᐱᕆᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᓴᖅᑭᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᓂ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂ ᑲᑎᑦᑕᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ.

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑏᑦ (matchplay)

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᓴᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖓᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ; ᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᒃᐸᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ, ᑳᓯᓄ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᒥᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᐳᓪᒪᓐ (Bollman) (2024) ᓛᔅ ᕖᒐᔅ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᖓᓂᒃ 2022-ᒥᓂᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᖅᓯᔪᖅ, $50-ᒧᑦ ᑎᑭᓪᓗᒍ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒻᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ/ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ/ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ/ᒥᑭᔪᑦ. 18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 1:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ, $50 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᓕᒃ $100-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ 18/37-ᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, $50-ᒥᒡᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ 19/37-ᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ: ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ +$22.97, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ 45.9%-ᖓ. ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ +$21.05, 42.1%. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᖓ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᑕᒪᓐᓇᓗ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᒋᓪᓗᒍ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦ ᑐᐊᖅ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ.

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔪᒐᒃᐸᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ
$50 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ, ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ$50−$1.35 (−2.70%)−$2.63 (−5.26%)
$50 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᓕᒃ$100+$22.97 (+45.9%)+$21.05 (+42.1%)
$50 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᓕᒃ, ᐱᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ$3,500+$45.95 (+91.9%)+$43.42 (+86.8%)

ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᒪᓕᒐᖏᓪᓗ

ᑮᓇᐅᔭᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦ

ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦ, ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᑕᐃᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦ (non-negotiable chips), ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᖏᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᕐᓂᖅ: ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓯᑉᐳᑐᐃᓐᓇᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ, ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᖅ ᓯᑉᓗ ᐲᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ; ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ ᐊᒻᒪᓗᑦᑕᐅᖅ ᐲᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ. $100 ᓯᑉ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ n ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔪᒥ (36 − n)/n × $100-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ n/37-ᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖓᑕ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ (36 − n)/37-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ. ᓯᑉ ᓇᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐅᑎᕐᓂᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᑐᐊᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᓐᓂᖏᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ ᒥᑭᓛᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ ᑕᐃᒪᐃᓕᐅᕐᓗᓂ: $94.59 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ, $48.65 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ. ᓯᑉ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ, ᐅᓗᐱᓕᒐᖅ, ᐊᓐᓄᕌᒃᓴᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᑕᖃᐃᓐᓇᕈᓐᓇᖅᐸᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓐᓇᓂ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖓᑕ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ 18/19-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ, 9/10-ᖓᓂᒡᓗ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ (Bollman, 2024).

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ$100 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓯᑉ ᐊᑭᖓ
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ1$94.59
ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ2$91.89
ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ3$89.19
ᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ4$86.49
ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ6$81.08
ᑕᓴᓐ12$64.86
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ18$48.65

ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᙳᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ

ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓗᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓴᐳᔾᔨᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑐᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ. ᐳᓪᒪᓐ ᐆᑦᑐᕋᐅᑎᖓ ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪᓂᑕᖅ Vegas World ᑳᓯᓄᒥᑦ: $1,000 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᓂᒃ ᓯᑉᐳᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ, $500 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ, $500-ᓗ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, $20-ᓗ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒥᒃ 0-ᒧᑦ 00-ᒧᓪᓗ ᐊᑐᓂ. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ $500-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ, $40 ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᓂ: +$460. ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᑉᐴᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒧᓪᓗ $700-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑐᖅ: +$680. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᐅᓪᓛᒥᒃ $460-ᒥᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᓗ, $471.58, ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ ᑐᐊᖅ ᐊᑭᖏᑕ 99.6%-ᖓ. ᒪᓕᒐᐃᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐊᖑᔪᓄᑦ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᓯᒃᐸᑕ, ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᓴᐳᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᖅ: $25 ᓯᑉᐳᑦ 36 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓄᑦ ($900), $25-ᓗ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒥᒃ ᓯᕉᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ $875-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑐᖅ, ᓯᕉᒧᓪᓗ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ ᓯᕉ ᓇᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᙱᑉᐸᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᐅᓪᓛᒥᒃ $850-ᒥᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖏᑕ ᐊᑭᖏᑕ 94%-ᖓ, ᐊᑦᑕᓇᖅᑐᖃᓐᖏᓪᓚᕆᑦᑐᖅ.

ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᒥᒡᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔪᑦ, ᒥᑭᔪᓪᓗ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᓯᕉᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᖏᑦ.

ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓗᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᒡᓗ ᓴᐳᔾᔨᓂᖅ

ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᓄᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ

ᐊᖏᔪᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑏᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᑐᓂᔭᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ: ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓯᒪᔭᖏᑕ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᖏᖃᑎᒌᒍᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᒃᑎᓪᓗᒍ. ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᓪᓗᑎᑦ ᑐᐊᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᑭᓕᓛᖑᔪᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐊᓗᒃᐸᑕ, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓗ ᓇᐃᑦᑐᒃᑲᓐᓂᖅ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᓱᓕ ᓴᙱᓕᖅᑎᓐᓇᒍ. ᐃᑉᔅᑕᐃᓐ (Epstein) (2013) ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓯᒪᔪᖅ; ᐅᕙᒍᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᕗᑦ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓄᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᐅᔪᑦ. ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᓇᑉᐸᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕆᐊᓕᐅᔪᖅ 103 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓄᑦ ᑎᑭᓪᓗᒍ, ᐱᐅᓛᖑᔪᓗ 25-ᒥ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ +0.51 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐊᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᖏᓗᐊᕐᒪᑕ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓯᕉᐅᑉ ᐅᖓᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 3,600 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓄᑦ ᑎᑭᓪᓗᒍ, ᐱᐅᓛᖑᔪᓗ 882-ᒥ, +17.25 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ. ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᓐᓂᖅᓴᒥ 10% ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᓯᕉᐅᑉ ᐅᖓᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᑐᐊᖅ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᓕ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐱᐅᓛᖑᔪᖅ 20 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ, +0.62 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ.

ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓯᕉᐅᑉ ᐅᖓᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᑎᑭᓪᓗᒍᐱᐅᓛᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᐱᐅᓛᖑᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐊᑭᖓ
50%ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ103 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ25 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ+0.51 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ
50%ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 3,600 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ882 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ+17.25 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ
10%ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ1 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ1 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ+0.02 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ
10%ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ85 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ20 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ+0.62 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ
ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᑭᖑᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᓱᓕᔪᑦ binomial ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ.

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖏᑦ: ᑳᓯᓄ ᓱᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒃᓴᕐᒪᖔᑦ

ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᑭᒡᓕᖓᓗ ᑳᓯᓄᒥᒃ ᓴᐳᔾᔨᔪᖅ: ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐳᓛᕆᐊᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᓂ, ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐊᖏᖃᑎᒌᒍᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᓄᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒥ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᓂᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓚᕆᒃᐸᑕ ᑐᐊᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎᒥᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ ᑕᐃᒪᓗ ᐅᓐᓄᐊᖅ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐃᓂᒋᔪᖅ $50-ᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓗᓂ $22.97-ᒥᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ 17 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ, $1.35-ᒥᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᑭᖓ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᓗᓂ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᖅᑐᒧᑦ, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐃᓛᒃ ᑕᐃᒪᐃᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᐊᓚᐅᖅᑐᒧᑦ.

ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ

ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᓯᑉ n ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ: ᐊᑭᖓ = ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖓᑕ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ (36 − n)/37-ᖓ
ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒻᒥ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ: EV = ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ (2 × 18 − 19)/37-ᖓ
ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᑦ r ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ: EV = E[ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ] + r × E[ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ]

ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ

ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᙳᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᓐᓇᖅᐸ?

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐃᓚᒋᔭᖓᓄᑦ, ᐄ. ᐊᓯᖏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᓱᓕ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ 2.70%-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᑦ.

ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᑳᓯᓄᐃᑦ ᓴᐳᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᓯᕙᑦ?

ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᕙᒃᑕᖏᑦ, ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᑳᓯᓄᓗ ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔾᔪᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᖅᓯᓯᒪᓕᖅᑐᖅ.

ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑐᐃᓐᓇᓄᑦ ᑐᓂᔭᐅᕙᑦ?

ᐃᒪᐃᓐᓂᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ. ᐊᖏᔪᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑎᓄᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ, ᑳᓯᓄᒥ ᐳᓛᕆᐊᖅᑎᓄᑦ ᐃᑲᔪᖅᑎᒥᒃ ᐊᖏᖃᑎᒌᒍᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᐃᖏᕐᕋᓂᕐᒥᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ.

ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ

ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.

  1. $25-ᓂᒃ ᓯᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᑐᓂᔭᐅᔪᑎᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐱᔭᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᕈᕕᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᒍᕕᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ. ᓇᒧᑦ ᐃᓕᒋᐊᖃᖅᐸ: ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᑕᓴᓐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ?

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ. ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ $23.65-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ; ᑕᓴᓐᒥ $16.22 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥᓗ $12.16.

    ᓯᑉ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐅᑎᕐᓂᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑕᖓ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ $25-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 18/37: $12.16. ᑕᓴᓐᒥ $50-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 12/37: $16.22. ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ $875-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 1/37: $23.65.

    ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ n ᓈᓴᐅᑏᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓯᑉᐳᑉ (36 − n)/37-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ. ᓯᑉᐳᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐅᑎᕐᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓪᓗ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ 36/37-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖕᒪᑕ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐲᖅᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓗ 37 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑕᐅᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

  2. ᑳᓯᓄ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᐱᑦ ᖃᑉᐱᐊᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ. $100 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᖁᔭᐅᕙ? $100-ᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ?

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᖁᔭᐅᔪᒃ: ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ +$22.97 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ +$45.95-ᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥ.

    ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ $100-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 18/37, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ $50-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 19/37: (1,800 − 950)/37 = +$22.97.

    ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ $3,500-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 1/37, $50-ᒥᒡᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 36/37: (3,500 − 1,800)/37 = +$45.95.

    ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ matchplay ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑐᑦ. $100 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ $50-ᒥᒃ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ $100-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ $50-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ, $50 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓯᔪᒥᒃ ᑯᐸᓕᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓪᓗᓂᐅᒃ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖅ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᒥ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓪᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᓪᓗ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᒃ ᓄᙳᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᓚᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓂ, ᐊᑭᓕᓐᓂᖓᓗ ᒥᑭᓕᕐᐳᖅ; ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᖃᑉᐱᐊᓐᓂᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ, 25 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ ᐱᐅᓛᖑᔪᖅ.

  3. ᑳᓯᓄ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᐱᑦ ᖃᑉᐱᐊᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ $100 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: 1, 2 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 3 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ. ᓇᓕᐊ ᐊᑭᓕᓐᓂᖅᐹᖑᕙ?

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ: ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ +$31.45. ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ +$22.97-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ, ᒪᕐᕉᓪᓗ +$20.96 ᑭᓯᐊᓂ.

    ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: $100-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓗᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 18/37, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ $100-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓗᑎᑦ $50-ᒥᒡᓗ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓗᑎᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ 19/37: +$22.97, ᖁᓛᓂ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎᒥᑐᑦ.

    ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᒃ: ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᒃ (1,369 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 324), +$200. ᑕᒪᒃᑭᓄᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ (684), $0, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᒃᓴᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒃ (361), −$200, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ −$100. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: (200 × 324 − 100 × 361)/1,369 = +$20.96. ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ, ᒪᕐᕉᓪᓗ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᒃ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᙱᓪᓗᓂᓗ ᐱᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᒃ.

    ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ (50,653 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 5,832): +$300. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᒃ (18,468): +$100. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ (19,494): −$100, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ −$50-ᒧᑦ. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ (6,859): −$300, ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ −$150-ᒧᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: +$31.45.

    ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᓕᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᕕᑦ, ᑳᓯᓅᓪᓗ ᐃᓚᖓ $2.70 ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᒪᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᓐᓂᖓ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ +$51-ᒧᑦ ᖁᕝᕙᖅᑐᖅ 25 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ (ᖁᓛᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᑦ ᑕᑯᓗᒋᑦ), ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓪᓗ ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᒥᑦ ᑭᖑᓪᓕᐊᓂ.

  4. ᓛᔅ ᕖᒐᔅᒥ ᑳᓯᓄ ᐱᓯᒪᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᑯᐸᓐᒥᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᓪᓗᓂ: $5 00-ᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᓗᒍ, ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᓪᓗ $250-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᑎᑦ, ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ $175 ᐊᓯᐊᓂ. $5 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑯᐸᓐᓕᒃ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᓐᓂᖃᖅᐸ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ ᐃᓚᖓᑎᑐᑦ, ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ?

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ +34%: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ +$1.71-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ. $250 ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᒥᒃ $5-ᒥᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᐸᑦ, +31.6%.

    00 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ 38 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ. ᑯᐸᓐᓕᒃ: +$250 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, −$5 ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂ 37-ᓂ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: (250 − 37 × 5)/38 = 65/38 = +$1.71, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ $5-ᐅᑉ 34.2%-ᖓ. ᑯᐸᓐᓇᖏᑦᑐᖅ: (175 − 185)/38 = −$0.26, ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ −5.26%.

    $250 ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐅᑉᐸᑦ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ $245, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᓗ (245 − 185)/38 = +$1.58, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 31.6%.

    ᐳᓪᒪᓐ (Bollman, 2024) ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᑯᐸᓐ, Lady Luck ᑳᓯᓄᒥᑦ (ᒫᓐᓇ Downtown Grand), ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎᒋᔪᖅ; ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐃᓚᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ, 7.89%, ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂᒃ ᑐᑭᒋᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ. matchplay ᑯᐸᓐᑐᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᑭᓕᒃ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓗᒍ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓗᑎᓪᓗ.

ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ

ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᓛᖑᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᓗᓂ ᐊᖏᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᖅᑐᒧᑦ.

ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᓛᖑᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᓗᓂ ᐊᖏᕐᕋᒧᑦ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᖅᑐᒧᑦ.

ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ

  1. Bollman, M. Basic Gambling Mathematics: The Numbers Behind the Neon, 2nd ed. CRC Press, 2024.
  2. Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.
ᕿᒥᕐᕈᔭᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ 2026-09-28ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᖃᓄᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ↗ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ↗