ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ · ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ · ᐳᓚᓐ
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓯᑉᒥᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐃᓕᓯᔪᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓗᐊᓐᓂᖅᐹᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓗ ᐊᖏᓛᖅ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ 2.70% ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ.
ᐊᑐᖅᑕᖏᑦ
1 / 37
ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ
2.70%
ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ
35:1
ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ
2.70%
EV $1-ᒧᑦ
−$0.027
SD $1-ᒧᑦ
5.84
ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ · ᐆᒃᑐᕋᐅᑎ: 17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
2:1
2:1
2:1
1-ᖓ 12
2-ᖓ 12
3-ᖓ 12
1–18
ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ
ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ
ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ
19–36
ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ · 25 34-ᓗ ᐊᑯᖏᓐᓂ
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖓ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓗ
ᐃᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ 37-ᓂᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ: 1/37, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 2.70%. ᑳᓯᓄ 35:1-ᒥ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑐᖅ. 37 ᐃᓂᓂ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 36:1-ᐅᒐᓗᐊᖅᑐᖅ; ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ.
p(ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ) = 1/37 = 0.0270
EV $1-ᒧᑦ = (1/37)(35) − (36/37)(1) = −1/37 = −$0.0270
EV $1-ᒧᑦ = (1/37)(35) − (36/37)(1) = −1/37 = −$0.0270
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓄᑦ ᐆᒃᑐᕋᐅᑎ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ$10 17-ᒧᑦ
17 ᓴᖅᑭᒃᐸᑦ (1/37)+$350 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ
ᐊᓯᐊ ᓴᖅᑭᒃᐸᑦ (36/37)−$10
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ−$0.27
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖏᑦ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᑖᓚᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑕᖃᓂᒃ 5.84 ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 1.00. 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ $10-ᒥ, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᐊᒥᓱᒃᑯᑦ ±$100 ᐃᓗᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ; ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᐊᒥᓱᒃᑯᑦ ±$584 ᐃᓗᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ
5.84
ᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (4)
2.84
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ (18)
1.00
ᐱᐅᓯᖏᑦ
- ᕿᑎᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᑕ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖓ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ; ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᖁᕝᕙᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᐃᓐᓈᓗᒃ 35:1 ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᓄᑦ.
- ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᑐᑦᓯᐊᕐᓂᖅ 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ, ᑐᑦᓯᐊᕐᓃᓪᓗ ᐃᓄᐃᑦ ᐅᓄᖅᓯᓂᖅᐹᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᑦ: 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᓱᓕ 36% ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
- ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᒥᑭᓛᖏᑦ ᓯᑉᒧᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᒃᑯᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᒥᑭᓛᖅ ᐊᒥᓱᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ.
- ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕖᓇᓯ ᑳᓯᓅᖏᓐᓂ ᐳᓚᓐ (plein) ᑕᐃᔭᐅᕙᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ, ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ.