ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᑉᒥᒃ ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᐃᓕᔨᔪᖅ: ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ.
ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 5:1. ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 16.22%.
ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓱᓇᐅᕙ?
ᓯᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᓯᓈᓂ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ, ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᕐᒥ, ᐃᑲᕐᕋᑦᑎᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᓗᓂ: ᐆᒃᑑᑎᒋᓗᒍ 16-17-18 19-20-21-ᓗ. ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓗ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᑦ (1–6-ᒥᑦ 31–36-ᒧᑦ). ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓯᕉᒥᒃᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓗᓕᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓯᑉ ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖓᑕ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᓪᓗ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᓯᓈᖓᑕ ᐊᕐᓗᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᖁᔨᔭᐅᔪᖅ; ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖓᓂ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᐸᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖓᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 11:1. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᑐᕋᓐᔅᕙᕐᓴᓪ (transversale).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →.
ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᕐᓗ
ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ 5.17, 1-ᒧᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ 5-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. $10 ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ $50-ᒥᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ (+$300), 31-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ (−$310), ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ −$10.
ᐱᐅᓯᖓ
ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ, ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ, ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ, ᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ, ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᖏᓛᖅ, ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓄᑦ ᐃᑳᕐᕕᐅᔪᖅ: ᑕᓴᓐ ᓇᑉᐸᖓᓂ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᖓᓂ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᑎᑭᑦᑕᖅᐸᒃᑐᑦ, 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒻᒥᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖃᙱᑦᑐᖃᕋᔭᙱᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ. ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᒻᒪᓗ ᔭᐃᒻᔅ ᐹᓐᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᖓᑕ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂᒃ ᓯᑉᐳᓕᒃ ᐃᓚᖓ, ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂᒃ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓂᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 13–18-ᒧᑦ ᐃᓕᔨᔪᖅ.
ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ
ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᑕᓴᓐᒥᒃᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓴᓇᔪᒃ (1–6 7–12-ᓗ 1–12-ᒥᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᒃ). $10 ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᑕᓴᓐ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ $50 − $10 = $40 ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᒃ; $20 ᑕᓴᓐ $40-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ, ᒪᕐᕉᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᑦ ᑕᓴᓐ ᓇᑉᐸᖓᓄᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᒪᒍᕕᑦ, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᕈᒪᒍᕕᑦ, ᐆᒃᑑᑎᒋᓗᒍ 10–15.
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ, ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᓪᓗ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ
ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ ᓯᓴᓐFR · ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦᓯᓴᓐᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ: ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᓂ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 5:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑐᕋᓐᔅᕙᕐᓴᓪFR · ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦᑐᕋᓐᔅᕙᕐᓴᓪᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (ᑐᕋᓐᔅᕙᕐᓴᓪ ᐳᓚᐃᓐ, 3 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ) ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (ᑐᕋᓐᔅᕙᕐᓴᓪ ᓴᓐᐳᓪ, 6 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᒻᐳᓪ (Sixain, Transversale simple); ᖃᑉᓗᓈᑎᑐᑦ “line bet”, “double street” ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ “six-number bet”; ᐃᓛᓐᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᓐᓂ “sixline” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᓪᓗᓂ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐋᒃᑲ. ᓯᕉ ᐃᓂᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ, ᐅᓗᐱᓕᒐᖅ, ᐊᓐᓄᕌᒃᓴᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᖁᓛᓂ, ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓂᒃ (0-1-2, 0-2-3) ᐹᔅᑭᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐹᔅᑭᑦᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕉᓕᒻᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ: 0, 1, 2, 3 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᑉᒥᒃ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 8:1. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᑦ ᓯᑕᒪᑦ, ᑲᑐᕐ ᐳᕋᒥᐊ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →-ᒥᓪᓗ ᓴᓇᔪᖅ, ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
√(p·25 + (1−p) − EV²), p = 6/37. ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᖏᓛᖅ, ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᑭᖑᓪᓕᖅᐹᖑᔪᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.