ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖏᑦ 37-ᒧᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ.
p = ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ / 37. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ: 2.70%. ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ: 48.65%. ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑕᐅᔪᑦ.
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ
37 ᐃᓂᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ. ᓯᑕᒪᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 4/37 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ, 10.8% ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ. ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑖᓐᓇ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᒥᑭᔪᒥᑦ ᐱᐅᓪᓗᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᓈᓴᐅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ.
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ
ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐱᓂᕐᓗᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒃᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᒃ: (18/37)² = 23.7%. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →: (18/37)(1/37) = 1.3%. ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓗ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᒃ: (1/37)² = 0.073%, ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ 1,369-ᓂᑦ. ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᑦ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ: “ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →” 25.0%-ᖑᔪᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ “ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᕐᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ, ᓇᓕᐊ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᒐᓗᐊᖅᐸᑦ” 50.0%-ᖑᔪᖅ.
ᐅᓄᓐᓂᖅᐹᖑᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ
ᐊᓯᐊ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒍ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᓪᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ (36/37)³⁷ = 36.3%-ᖑᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐅᓄᓐᓂᖅᐹᖑᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ 63.7%-ᖑᔪᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒃᑕᖓᑎᒃ “ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕈᑎᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ” 37-ᓂᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓂᒃ 1-ᒥᒃ 37-ᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑕᖓ. ᑖᓐᓇ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᐅᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᙱᑦᑐᐊᓘᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ 1 3-ᓂᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇ ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑯᑎᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᕙᒃᑐᑦ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒃ “ᐃᒃᑮᔪᓂᒃ” ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ.
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐅᑕᖅᑭᓂᖅ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᕙᒃᑐᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐅᑕᖅᑭᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓗᐊᖅᑐᖅ: ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᐅᑕᖅᑭᓂᖅ 25 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ (ᓇᑉᐸᖓᓂ ᓱᒃᑲᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᓴᖅᑭᕙᒃᑐᖅ) ᐊᒻᒪ ᐅᑕᖅᑭᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᖁᓖᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ 110 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ. ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ ᐅᑕᖅᑭᓃᑦ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓗᐊᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ “ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔪᖅ” ᓈᓴᐅᑎ 60 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂᑦ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᕕᐅᕙᒃᑐᒥᒃ.
ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᑦ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓃᑦ
ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑲᑎᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᓂᓄᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᓂᐊᕈᓐᓇᖅᑐᓄᑦ (ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ 36/37-ᖑᙱᑦᑐᖅ; 26/37-ᖑᔪᖅ, ᖁᓕᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᕐᒪᑕ). ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᓂᓄᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ (ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᕐᓗ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ 10/37-ᖑᔪᖅ, 18/37 × 18/37-ᖑᙱᑦᑐᖅ). ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᓕᖅᑕᑎᑦ ᐃᓚᒋᓂᖏᑦ: ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᖏᓐᓂ, ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓗ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ 18/37-ᖑᔪᖅ, (18/37)¹¹-ᖑᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᓱᓇᐅᕙᑦ, ᖃᓄᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ?
ᑳᓯᓄᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᕙᒃᑐᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ 1/37 ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ 36, 1-ᒧᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35, 1-ᒧᑦ ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᒡᒐᖅᑐᖅ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᐱᐅᓯᖓᓂ. ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖅ: ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ = (1 − p)/p; ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ = 1/(ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ + 1).
ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
(1/37)² = 1/1369 ≈ 0.073%.
36/37 = 97.3%. ᓯᕉ ᐊᓯᐊᓂᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
37 ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ 1/37-ᖑᔪᑦ. ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᓐᓂᖅᐹᖑᔪᖅ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᐃᓄᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᖅ.
ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ
ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑐᑎᑦ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᑕᓪᓕᒪᖓ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅᐱᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᐸ? ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂᓪᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓐᓂᒃ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᓂ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᕐᒧᑦ?
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ 12.9%, ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 8 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 1, ᑕᓪᓕᒪᖓ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ. 33.4% ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓄᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓐᓄᑦ ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪᓄᖓ.
ᑕᓪᓕᒪᖓ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ: ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ, ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᓪᓗ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃ ᓯᑕᒪᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᖓᓱᓂᒡᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᖃᓄᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑎᒃ. 35 ᐱᐅᓯᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᑦ ᓯᑕᒪᓂᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᐃᓕᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ.
ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ 35 × (18/37)⁵ × (19/37)³ = 35 × 0.02725 × 0.1354 = 12.9%.
ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓄᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑎᑭᓚᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓂ, ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᕐᓗᒋᑦ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᖓ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᖓᓂ, ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᖓᓂ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓᓂᓗ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ: 2.7% + 7.0% + 10.8% + 12.9% = 33.4%. ᓈᓴᐃᔨᑦ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐊᑎᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᑖᓄᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ (negative binomial): ᖃᔅᓯᑦ ᐱᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᕐᒪᖔᑕ. ᑎᐃᓗ (Taylor, 2021) ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᒥᒃ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ ᐱᓕᕆᔪᖅ, 12.2%.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐃᓂᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓗᒋᑦ. 37-ᒧᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓗᒋᑦ. ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.