ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᒪᓕᒐᖏᓪᓗ
ᑐᕐᑎᐃᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ, 0 00-ᓗ, 5.26%. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᑦ, ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ.
ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᓕᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᓪᓚᑦᑖᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᒫᓂ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇ ᐃᓂ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᐅᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ: 5.26% ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓂ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᓂ, 7.89% ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓄᑦ ᐹᔅᑭᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐹᔅᑭᑦᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕉᓕᒻᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ: 0, 1, 2, 3 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᑉᒥᒃ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 8:1. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᑦ ᓯᑕᒪᑦ, ᑲᑐᕐ ᐳᕋᒥᐊ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ.
ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖓ
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 1/38 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ 35:1-ᒥᓪᓗ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ: EV = 35/38 − 37/38 = −2/38 = −5.26%. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐅᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒪᓕᒐᖓ ᓱᓕ ᐃᓂᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 36 ᐅᓪᓗ ᓈᓴᐃᒻᒪᑦ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 0-00-1-2-3-ᒧᑦ, 6:1 ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᒪᓕᒐᕐᓗ 36/5 − 1 = 6.2 ᐊᑭᓕᖁᔨᒐᓗᐊᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ; ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ 7.89% ᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ, ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᑦ ᐱᐅᙱᓛᖓᑦ.
ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᓕᒃ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ ᐋᖅᑭᐅᒪᓂᖓ
ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᑐᓪᓕᐅᑎᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ, 0 00-ᓗ ᑕᑕᒥᓂᖅ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᓃᑦᑐᑦ: 0 28 9 26 30 11 7 20 32 17 5 22 34 15 3 24 36 13 1 00 27 10 25 29 12 8 19 31 18 6 21 33 16 4 23 35 14 2. ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᑕᑕᒥᓂᖅ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᓃᑦᑐᑦ. ᐅᖃᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃᐅᖃᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᒧᑦ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᒡᒐᒥᒃ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᓐᖏᓪᓗᓂ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᕗᐊᓴᓐ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑎᐊᕐ ᐊᔾᔨᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: “ᐅᖃᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ”.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᕗᐊᓴᓐ ᑎᐊᕐᓗ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᑕᒫᓂ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖏᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᒻᒪᑕ.
ᓇᓂ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᕉᓚᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖓ ᓇᓃᓐᓇᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᖕᒪᖔᑦ
ᓛᔅ ᕖᒐᔅ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᓄᓇᖓᓂᓗ ᑳᓯᓄᐃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓛᑦ, ᓚᑎᓐ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲᒥ ᑳᕆᐱᐊᓐᒥᓗ ᐃᓚᖏᑦ, ᐃᓂᑦᑎᐊᕐᓂᒃᑯᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ “ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ” ᑕᐃᔭᐅᔪᑦ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᓕᒃᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᒥᑭᓛᖓ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᓄᓇᖓᓂ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᖏᔪᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᓐᓂ ᐃᓗᐃᑦ ᑐᓂᓯᒐᔪᒃᑐᑦ, ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᓄᓇᖓᓂᓗ ᑳᓯᓄᐃᑦ ᐃᓚᖏᑦ “ᑐᓂᓯᓂᕐᒥᒃ” ᑐᓂᓯᔪᑦ (ᓇᑉᐸᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓂᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ/ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ/ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ/ᒥᑭᔪᑦ. 18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 1:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 0 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 00 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ), ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇ ᑖᒃᑯᐊ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ 2.63% ᐅᓕᖅᑐᑦ.
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᓱᓕ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙ
ᐱᐅᓯᑐᖃᖅ ᐱᐅᓯᕆᓪᓚᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗ. ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲᒧᑦ ᑎᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᓯᕉᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐳᓛᓐ (Blanc) ᐃᐅᕌᐸᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐲᖅᓯᓚᐅᖏᓐᓂᖓᓂ, ᐊᔪᕆᐅᖃᑎᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕆᔭᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᓄᓇᖓᓂ ᑳᓯᓄᐃᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐃᑦ ᒥᑭᓛᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᐊᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒋᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᓕᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ $10 ᒥᑭᓛᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᓕᒻᒥᓗ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ $100 ᒥᑭᓛᖃᖅᑐᒥ ᐃᓚᒋᔭᐅᖃᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓴᓂᓕᕇᒃᐸᑦ, ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᐅᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕆᐊᓕᒃ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᒃ, ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᓕᒻᒥᒃᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᑕ 00 ᐃᓂᖓ. ᐱᑕᖃᕐᓂᖓ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᖁᕝᕙᓯᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ 2.70%-ᒥᑦ 5.26%-ᒧᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᓐᖏᓪᓗᓂ.
ᑎᖕᒥᐊᕐᔪᐊᖅ
ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖏᑦ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᑦ 19-ᖓᓂ ᐊᕐᕌᒍᐃᑦ ᑕᑕᑎᒐᖏᓐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐱᖓᔪᐊᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑎᖕᒥᐊᕐᔪᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑕᓕᖕᒥᒃ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ 7% ᖁᑦᑎᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓗᓂ. ᐊᔪᕆᐅᖃᑎᒌᓐᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔾᔮᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᓯᕉᓕᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ 2016-ᒥ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ, ᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑕᐅᑉ ᓄᐊᑦᓯᐊᐅᑉ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᓂ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐋᒃᑲ. ᑕᓐᓇ ᑐᑭᖓ: ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᑦ, ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ.
ᐋᒃᑲ. ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐱᐅᙱᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓗᓂᓗ.
ᐄ, ᐋᖅᑭᐅᒪᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 5.26% 20 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓚᖓ, 2.70% ᐱᓐᖏᓪᓗᓂ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᑦ. ᑐᕐᑎᐃᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ. 5.26%.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Schwartz, D. G. Roll the Bones: The History of Gambling.