ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᑦ. ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓗᒍ. ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ.
ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᓰᑦ ᖁᓕᓂᑦ ᓯᑕᒪᓂᓪᓗ ᓂᕈᐊᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ, ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ, ᕖᓇᓯ ᒥᑭᔪᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕖᑦ; ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᓪᓗ. 0.1% ᐃᓗᐊᓂ 3 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ, 0.5% ᐃᓗᐊᓂ 2, 1% ᐃᓗᐊᓂ 1.
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᓯᖅ 1 / 6
ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ
16–18: ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᓂᐊᖁᕐᒥ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᕆᕙᒃᑕᑎᑦ.
11–15: ᓯᑕᒪᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᑎᑦ (2.70, 5.26, 1.35, 7.89) ᖃᖓᒃᑯᓪᓗ ᐊᕐᕕᑕᐅᕙᒻᒪᖔᑕ.
6–10: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᑎᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕖᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᖏᓐᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᑦ.
6-ᒥᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᖅ: ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ, ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ. ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ = −Σ(ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × EV) / Σ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ.
ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᕙᑦᑐᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐃᓚᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑐᓂ ᓇᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑖᓚᒧᑦ ᐊᑐᓂ: (ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐅᑉᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑐᙵᕕᖓ − ᐃᓂᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →) / ᐃᓂᑦ, −1/37-ᖑᔪᖅ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖓᓂ, −2/38 ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖓᓂ, −1/13 ᒥᑭᔪᒥ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ, −0.5/37-ᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ/ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ/ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ/ᒥᑭᔪᑦ. 18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 1:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾᒪᓕᒐᖅᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾᕖᓇᓯ ᒪᓕᒐᖓ: ᓯᕉ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ ᕿᑎᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ. ᑕᐃᒃᑯᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᕿᑎᐊᓄᑦ ᒥᑭᓕᒋᐊᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ, 1.35%-ᒧᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑐᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ. ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᖁᓛᓂ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ, 6:1 ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ, −3/38. ᐊᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓄᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ, ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒡᓗᒍ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᓴᓇᕐᕈᑎ ᑖᓐᓇ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᕆᕙᒃᑕᖓ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᑎᑦᓯᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᕐᒧᑦ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ −1/37-ᖑᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ, ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊᓗ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᒐᐃ −1/37-ᖑᔪᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ.
ᕖᓇᓯ ᐊᕐᕕᑕᐅᔪᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᓯᑉᐳᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 1.35%-ᖑᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᓪᓗ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ 2.70%, ᑕᐃᒪ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓐᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᑦ ᒪᓕᒃᓗᒋᑦ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓗᑎᑦ, ᑭᖑᓂᐊᒍᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.