ᕉᓚᑦ: ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃ · ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃ · ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᕆᓂᖅ · 8 ᒥᓂᑦ

ᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᓂᖅ

“ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ” ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, “ᓱᓕᔪᖅ” ᐱᓇᓂ “ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ”-ᓗ ᐱᓇᓂ.

ᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ

p ᐊᑭᖓ 0.05 ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᑕᒪᑐᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᓯᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᐅᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᒃᐸᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᔪᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ.

ᐱᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ
p < 0.05
ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖓ
5% ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎᒧᑦ
ᐋᖅᑭᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ
ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓂᖅ
ᓱᓇᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓ
p(ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᖅ)

p ᐊᑭᖓ ᓱᓇᐅᕙ

ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᖏᑎᒋᔪᒥᒃ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᓯᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᑕ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓪᓗᒍ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᓇᓂ. p ᐊᑭᖓᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃp ᐊᑭᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᐸᑦ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑐᑦ ᐊᖏᑎᒋᔪᒥᒃ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 0.03 ᐅᖃᖅᑐᖅ: ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᐱᓕᕆᕙᒃᑐᖅ 3%-ᒥ. ᐅᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓄᑦ 97% ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᑐᒡᓕᐊ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᔭᕆᐊᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑦᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᕕᒃᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᓇᓂᖓᑕ ᐊᑲᐅᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᓂᓂᒃ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒃ 1/37-ᒥᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ. ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᑦᓯᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑕᐅᓴᓐ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᒍᑎᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᒥᓲᑎᒋᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ, ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᓂᓗ ᑳᓯᓄᓂ ᐱᑕᖃᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᐊᓘᑉ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᑦ ᐊᔪᕐᓂᐅᓇᔭᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᐊᓗᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᓂᕐᒥᑦ.

ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖅᓱᓕᕙ?
p = 0.03 ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᑕᒪᑐᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᕙᒃᑐᖅ 3%-ᒥᐄ
p = 0.03 ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓄᑦ 97% ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅᐋᒃᑲ
p = 0.03 ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐆᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐃᓂ ᐆᓇᐃᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃᐋᒃᑲ
p = 0.03 30 ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᓚᐅᖅᓗᒋᑦ ᓴᙱᔪᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅᐋᒃᑲ; ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᑏᒃ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᔪᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
p = 0.03 ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂᒫᓐᓇ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᒃᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ

ᐊᒥᓱᓄᑦ ᓇᓪᓕᒋᔭᐅᓂᖏᑦ

ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᑎᑦ 5% ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ 5%-ᒥ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖓᓄᑦ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑐᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐱᕕᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᓂ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᒍ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓗᒍ 37 ᐃᓂᓄᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᑎᖅᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ, ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓄᑦᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᑎᖅᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᓄᓪᓗ ᑕᕐᕋᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᑲᑎᖅᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ, ᓱᓇᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐋᖅᑭᒋᐊᖅᓯᔾᔪᑎ ᐅᓇ: ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᑕᑯᓚᐅᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓗᒍ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒍ, ᓄᑖᓂᓪᓗ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᓱᓕᓂᖓ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ. ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᖅ “ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᒥᒃ” ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᔪᖅ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᑎᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᑎᔪᖅ.

ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓱᓕᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ p < 0.05-ᒥ%
1 ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ
5%
5 ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑏᑦ
23%
10 ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑏᑦ
40%
20 ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑏᑦ
64%
37 ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑏᑦ (ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐃᓂᒧᑦ)
85%
%
042.5085%
1 − 0.95ⁿ. ᐃᓂ ᑕᒪᑐᒪ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᐅᒃᐸᑦ “ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᒥᒃ” ᓇᓂᓯᓂᖅ ᐊᒡᒐᖓ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ.

ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᖏᓂᖓᓗ

ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᓗᐃᑦ ᒥᑭᑦᑐᐊᓗᒻᒥᒃ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᑎᑦᑎᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ. ᐃᓂ 1/36.5-ᒥ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ 1/37-ᒥ ᐱᓇᓂ ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᐅᙱᓐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᒥᓕᐊᓐᓂ ᐊᒥᓲᙱᑦᑐᓂ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᓕᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ 35, 1-ᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᒥᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᐃᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑦᑐᐃᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᖏᓂᖓ: ᐃᓂ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ 1/36-ᒥ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᐸ, ᖃᓄᐃᓪᓗᐊᑦᑎᐊᖅ? ᑲᐃ-ᔅᑯᐃᐅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᖅ; ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᓐᓂᖓ ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊᖑᓪᓗᐊᑕᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᖅ.

ᓴᙱᓂᖓ

ᐊᓯᐊ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓂᖅ ᐅᓇ: ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓ. 1,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ, ᐃᓂ 1/30-ᒥ (ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖅ ᐊᖏᔪᐊᓘᑉ) 5%-ᒥ ᖃᐅᔨᔭᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᓇᑉᐸᖓᓂ ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊᖑᓪᓗᐊᑕᖅ. ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ, ᐃᓱᒪᑦᓴᓂᖅ ᐱᓇᓂ, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐋᖅᑭᒋᐊᖅᓯᔪᖅ. ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒪᑉᐱᒐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᖅ.

ᐊᑐᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ

ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖅ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᒃᓴᐅᓂᐊᕐᒪᑦ: ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕈᑎ ᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ, p < 0.01 0.05-ᒥ ᐱᓇᓂ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᓕᓐᓂ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᓂ ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓂᖅ, ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓚᐅᖅᓗᓂᓗ ᐱᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᒃᑐᖅᑕᐅᕙᓐᓂᖏᑦ 1/34-ᒥ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᐊᑐᓐᓇᓚᐅᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᒥᓲᙱᑦᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᐅᓯᑐᖃᖓᓂ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᑎᒃ ᒫᓐᓇᐅᔪᒥ ᐱᐅᓯᑦᑎᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᒥ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᓂᓗᑦᑕᐅᓐᓃᑦ.

ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ

ᓱᖕᒪᑦ 0.05?

1920-ᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐱᐅᓯᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ; 0.01 ᐃᓱᒪᑦᓴᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᑭᒡᓕᐅᑎᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᓂᒃ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ.

p ᒥᑭᑦᑐᐊᓘᒃᐸᑦ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓪᓚᕆᒃᐸ?

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᓯᐅᖅᑎᑦᑎᙱᓐᓇᔭᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔨᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᑐᐃᓂᖓ ᐃᓛᒃ, ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓛᒃ, ᖃᕆᑕᐅᔭᒧᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎ. ᐱᓕᕆᒋᐊᓪᓚᓗᑎᑦ.

ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑕᐅᑦ ᓇᓪᓕᐊᒧᑦ ᐃᓂᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᑎᕙᖓ?

ᐋᒃᑲ. ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᓈᒻᒪᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔪᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑦᑐᐃᓂᐅᓪᓗ ᐊᖏᓂᖓ ᓇᐅᓐᓂᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔪᑦ.

ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ

ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.

  1. ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᒥᒃ ᑕᓴᓐᒥᒃᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 3,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ 742-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑎᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑖᓂ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖏᓐᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓂᖃᖅᐸ, ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᓗ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᒥᓱᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᓂ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᓕᕆᔪᓐᓇᖅᐸ?

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ

    ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 8.1 ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᑖᓂ. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᓕᕆᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 3 × 10¹⁵ ᐱᓇᓱᒃᑐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᒋᐊᕈᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑎᒥ ᐃᓚᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ 11.75-ᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᖅᑐᖅ; ᐅᕙᒍᑦ 8.07-ᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᔪᒍᑦ.

    ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᑕᓴᓐ 38 ᐃᓂᓐᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 12-ᓂᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ. 3,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ 3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4 ᓴᖅᑭᓃᑦ, ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.

    742 ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᒥᑦ 205.4-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑖᓂ: 205.4/25.5 = 8.07 ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ.

    ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ ᐱᖓᓱᓂᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 740 ᐱᓇᓱᒃᑐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ; ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖅ, ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 3 × 10¹⁵ ᐱᓇᓱᒃᑐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ (ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ, ᓴᓂᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ). ᐅᖃᓕᒫᖅᑎ ᐱᖓᓱᓂ ᑕᓴᓐᓂ ᐱᐅᓐᖏᓛᖑᔪᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᓯᒪᓂᖓ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᒐᓗᐊᖅᑕᐅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᑕᒪᑐᒥᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑕᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅ, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ, ᑕᒻᒪᖅᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ 9.0 ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᑖᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ (ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ 973.0, ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ 25.6).

ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ

ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ “ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ”. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᑭᖓ.

ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᐃᒃᑕᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ “ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ”. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᑭᖓ.

ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3-ᖓ ᓴᖅᑭᑕᐅᓂᖓ, 1968. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒃᓴᐃᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᑎᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᓂᖏᑦ, ᐃᓚᖓ XIV.
  3. Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, ᕉᓚᑦ ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ. ᓄᑖᙳᖅᑎᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᐅᒡᒍᓯ 3, 2026.
ᕿᒥᕐᕈᔭᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ 2026-09-28ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᖃᓄᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ↗ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ↗