ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓ
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑐᖓᕕᖓ (√), ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᓐᓂᖓ.
$1-ᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ σ 5.84-ᖑᔪᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ 1.00 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓄᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑕ ᑐᖓᕕᖓᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᒥᓲᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ.
ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᐃᓐᓇᐅᓂᖏᑕ ᒪᕐᕉᖏᑦ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᑉ σ-ᐅᑉ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ 95% ᒪᕐᕉᑉ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ. 100 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ $10-ᒥ (ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ −$27, σ = $100) ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ −$127 ᐊᒻᒪ +$73 ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᒃᑐᑦ, ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂᓗ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ −$227 ᐊᒻᒪ +$173 ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓂ. ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᑕᐃᒃᑯᐊ ᓯᓚᑖᓄᑦ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᖁᓖᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᕕᐅᕙᒻᒪᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ.
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ √N
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → N ᒪᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᕙᒃᑐᖅ; ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ √N ᒪᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐊᖏᒡᓕᕙᒃᑐᖅ. N ᒥᑭᑉᐸᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᒥᒃ ᒥᓯᒃᓯᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᖃᖅᑐᑦ ᒥᑭᔪᒥᒃ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓪᓗᑎᒃ. N ᐊᖏᑉᐸᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑭᖑᓪᓕᕆᓯᔪᖅ. ᐊᓯᔾᔨᕐᕕᖓ, ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓂᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᖃᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ, N = (σ/ᐃᓚᖓ)² = (1/0.027)² ≈ 1,370 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ (5.84/0.027)² ≈ 46,800 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᑖᒃᑯᐊ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᑖᓃᓐᓂ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᔪᖅ; ᖁᓛᓃᓐᓂ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᔪᖅ.
ᐊᑐᕐᓂᖓ
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᙱᑦᑐᒦᑦᑐᖅ ᖃᐅᔨᒋᐊᕈᕕᐅᒃ, (ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ − EV)/σ ᓈᓴᐃᓗᒍ. $10-ᒥᒃ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑎ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᖏᓐᓂ +$150-ᒥ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑐᖅ (150 + 27)/100 = 1.77σ-ᒥ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ 25-ᓂᑦ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ: ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᐅᔪᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑐᐊᕕᕐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥ +$150-ᒥ 0.3σ-ᒥ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ: ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᐅᓐᓄᖅ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᑯᑦ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓂᖓ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ ᖃᑦᓯᓂᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂ ᑕᑯᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᑕᑯᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᓚᖏᑕ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓂᖓ √(p(1 − p)/N). ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ N = 1,000: √(0.4865 × 0.5135 / 1000) ≈ 1.6%. ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕐᒥᒃ ᒥᓯᒃᓯᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᕐᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ 1.35%-ᖑᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ 1,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓪᓚᕆᒐᓱᓐᓂᐊᙱᓚᑎᑦ. 10,000 ᑭᖑᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓂᖓ 0.5%-ᖑᔪᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ ᖃᐅᔨᔪᓐᓇᓕᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᑎᑦ. ᑖᓐᓇ ᐱᓪᓗᒍ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᓘᔪᓂᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᒃ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
ᓴᖑᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᖃᐅᔨᒪᒋᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᓇᐃᑦᑐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐅᖓᓯᒃᑐᐊᓘᔪᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ −$10 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖃᑦᑕᖅᑐᑦ, ᐃᓛᓐᓂ +$350 ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ. ±1σ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐱᐅᓯᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓐᖏᑦᑑᒐᓗᐊᖅ N ᕼᐊᓐᑐᕆᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓄᑦ ᑎᑭᑦᑎᓐᓇᒋᓂ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ/ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ/ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ/ᒥᑭᔪᑦ. 18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 1:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ᐱᐅᔪᖅ 30 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ.
ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ 40 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᓯᒪᓂᕐᓂᒃ, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐱᐅᔪᒥ ᓯᑕᒪᐃᓐᓇᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᖁᓖᓐᓂ ᐃᓚᐅᓯᒪᓂᕐᓂᒃ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑲᓐᓂᕐᓗᒍ.
ᒥᑭᓕᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᔪᖅ: ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᐅᑉ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ ᑕᒻᒪᕐᓂᖓ σ/√N. N = 10,000-ᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ 1%-ᖓᑦ.
ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ
ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.
ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ, ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᖅ 51 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᓐᓂ, ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖓ 3-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑉᐸᑦ. ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒍ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓃᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓗᒋᒃ, ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪᓂᓗ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᓐᓄᑦ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖓᓗᒋᒃ.
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ: ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ 35.6%-ᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑎᔪᖅ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᓗ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ 35.5%. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ: ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ 55.0%-ᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑎᔪᖅ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᓗ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ 50.9%. ᓱᒃᑲᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᓕᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᒧᓪᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᑕᒻᒪᖅᑐᖅ.
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ: ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ 100 × 18/37 = 48.6, ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ √(100 × 18/37 × 19/37) = 5.0. ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓂᖅ 51 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ; ᕿᑎᐊ, 50.5, 0.37 ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᖁᓛᓂ, ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᓪᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ 35.6%-ᒥᒃ ᑕᑦᓱᒪ ᖁᓛᓂ ᐃᓕᔪᖅ. 51, 52 … 100 ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ 35.5%.
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ: ᓴᖅᑭᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ 100/37 = 2.70, ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ √(100 × 1/37 × 36/37) = 1.62. ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᓃᑦ 2.5-ᒥᑦ ᖁᓛᓂ, 0.12 ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑖᓂ: 55.0% ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᕐᒥ. ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃ, 1 ᐲᖅᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ 0, 1 2-ᓗ ᓴᖅᑭᓃᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ, 6.5% + 17.9% + 24.7%, 50.9%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᖅᑕᐃᓕᔪᖅ.
ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑕᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᑉ ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂ ᓴᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐱᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ; ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᓂᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᑕᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᖅ “ᓴᖅᑭᓂᖃᙱᑦᑐᒧᑦ” 8.7%-ᒥᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᖅ, ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ 6.5% ᐊᓯᐊᓂ. ᑎᐃᓗ (Taylor, 2021) ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ (binomial) ᖃᒻᒥᐅᑎᑐᓪᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᓯᐊᕐᒥᒃ ᓴᓂᓕᕇᑦᑎᔪᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᐅᓯᖃᖅᓗᓂ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᖁᓖᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᒡᒪᒃ ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᒃᑐᖅ. ᐃᓄᒃ ᑕᒪᑦᑕᐃᓐᓇ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᓴᓂᖓᓃᑦᑐᒥ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Taylor, D. G. Games, Gambling, and Probability: An Introduction to Mathematics, 2nd ed.