ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕐᓂᖅ · ᐱᒋᐊᓕᖅᑐᖅ · 7 ᒥᓂᑦ

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᓯᓚᑖᓂᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ

ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᓯᓚᑖᓂᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᒌᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅᓴᖅᑕᖓ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ.

ᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ

ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔪᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᓪᓗ 5:1-ᒥᑦ 35:1-ᒧᑦ. ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐃᐃᑏᓐ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔪᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᓪᓗ 2:1 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 1:1.

ᐃᓗᐊᓂ

1–6 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ

ᓯᓚᑖᓂ

12–18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ

ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ

2.70% ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓄᑦ

σ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓ

6×-ᒧᑦ ᑎᑭᓪᓗᒍ

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᓱᐃᔪᑦ?

ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᒃ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᒃ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 17:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖓᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 11:1. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᑐᕋᓐᔅᕙᕐᓴᓪ (transversale).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓯᑕᒪᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᖕᓂᖃᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 8:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᓂ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᓂ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 5:1. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓯᓴᓐ (sixain).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓘᓐᓈᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᐃᓗᐊᓃᑦᑐᑦ. ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᐃᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᓪᓗ ᐊᖏᔪᑦ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖓᓗ 35, 1-ᒧᑦ; ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖓᓗ 5, 1-ᒧᑦ. ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᒥᑭᓛᖓ ᐊᑐᒐᔪᒃᑐᒥ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᓯᑉᐳᑎᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᑦ $1 ᓯᑉᐳᑦ ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᓐᓂ $5 ᒥᑭᓛᖅ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᓯᔪᑦ.

ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ 70 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓪᓗᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ (ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 15% ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ) ᑕᐃᒪ $350 ᐱᔭᐅᓗᓂ $10 ᓯᑉᒥ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᐃᒃᑯᓂ 70 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ $19; ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᓇᓃᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ −$700-ᒥᑦ +$1,000-ᒧᑦ.

ᕉᓚᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖏᑦ

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᓱᐃᔪᑦ?

ᑕᓴᓐᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖓᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ ᒥᑭᔪᓪᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓃᑦᑐᑦ ᐃᓂᖏᓐᓂ. ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖏᓪᓗ ᒥᑭᔪᑦ: 2, 1-ᒧᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᒧᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓄᑦ. ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᒥᑭᓛᖓᓂᒃ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᓯᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᑦ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐃᓚᓐᓈᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᖁᕝᕙᓯᒃᑐᖅ ᐳᓛᖅᑐᕐᓗ, ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᖃᑦᑕᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐃᓚᓗᒋᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᕼᐋᓐᑐᓪ, ᐋᒃᓴᓐ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 2.70% ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᓂ.

ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᒪᓕᒡᓗᒋᑦ% ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ

ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (1)

2.70%

ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (2)

5.41%

ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (3)

8.11%

ᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (4)

10.81%

ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ (6)

16.22%

ᑕᓴᓐ / ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ (12)

32.43%

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ (18)

48.65%

% ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ

024.3248.65%

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ 37-ᒧᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᐸᒃᑐᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓕᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᔪᖅ −2.70% ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᓂ.

ᓱᓇ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸ, ᓱᓇ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᓚ

ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᓚᒌᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑎᐊᖅᑐᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓱᓕᔪᓂᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᓐᓂᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ 1/37-ᖓᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᒃ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᓂᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂᑦ 2.70% ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒃ. ᐊᑖᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᑦ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᔪᒥᒃ $10, 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒻᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ; ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᐅᔪᖅ, ᐊᑐᒐᔪᒃᑐᓪᓗ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ.

$10 × 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ−$27−$27

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓ$584$100

ᐊᑐᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖓ (±1σ)−$611-ᒥᑦ +$557-ᒧᑦ−$127-ᒥᑦ +$73-ᒧᑦ

p(ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑐᖅ)≈ 31%≈ 42%

p(ᐊᔪᒐᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐃᓘᓐᓈᒃ)6.5%≈ 0%

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᑭᖃᑎᒌᒃᑐᒃ; ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓂᐱᖅᑐᔪᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᑎᔪᖅ.

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ, ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕐᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥᑦ ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ.

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᐊᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᖅ: ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᒪᓕᒡᓗᒍ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᒪᓕᙱᓪᓗᒍ

ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᒥᑭᔪᓂᒡᓗ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕐᓂᓕᒻᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᒪᒍᕕᑦ, ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᓯᑕᒪᐅᓕᐊᓄᑦ: ᑕᓴᓐᑦ, ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒡᓗ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓖᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒥᑭᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓕᒃ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᑦᑎᓐᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ. ᐊᖏᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᒪᒍᕕᑦ, ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᐅᑉ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᖓᓂᒡᓗ ᐃᓘᓐᓈᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᖏᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᖏᖅᑕᖃᕈᕕᑦ, ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ, ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ, ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ, ᓯᑕᒪᓄᑦ, ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓄᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᑦᑎᓐᓇᓱᒃᑐᑦ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᑦᓴᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᓪᓗ ᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾᒪᓕᒐᖅᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾᕖᓇᓯ ᒪᓕᒐᖓ: ᓯᕉ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ ᕿᑎᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ. ᑕᐃᒃᑯᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᕿᑎᐊᓄᑦ ᒥᑭᓕᒋᐊᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ, 1.35%-ᒧᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᐸᑦ.

ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ, $10 ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅᐃᓱᓕᓐᓂᖓ, ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓗᒍ

1,000 ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ × 500 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ · ᑕᐅᑦᑐᖓ ᕗᐊᔪᓕᑦ p10/p25/p75/p90, ᖃᐅᒻᒪᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑐᖑᔪᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ, 81 ᐊᔪᕿᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐆᒃᑐᕈᑏᑦ · ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᒃᑯᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᕐᓗᑎᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᑕᑯᓂᐊᕐᓗᒋᑦ

p10 −$420
p25 −$280
ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$120
p75 +$20
p90 +$140

1,000 ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ × 500 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ · ᖁᒻᒧᑦ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖅ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ 1–99-ᖓᓄᑦ ᐳᓴᓐᑎᓪᒧᑦ (ᐊᖏᓛᑦ −$500-ᒥᑦ +$620-ᒧᑦ) · 500 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ · $10 ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎ · ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ

ᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ

ᐃᓚᒌᒃ ᐊᑐᐊᒐᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ

ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᓯᓚᑖᓂᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᐊᒐᖅᑎᑦᓯᕙᒃᑐᑦ: ᐃᓚᓐᓈᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᖏᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒃᑐᑦ, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᐊᕐᒪᑦ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑭᖏᑦᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᑎᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᕐᒪᑕ, ᐊᑐᐊᒐᖅᑐᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖃᖅᑐᑦ 2.70% ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖓᓃᑦᑐᖅ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐃᔪᖅ ᐊᑐᐊᒐᖅᑎᑦᓯᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓄᑦ.

ᖁᓕᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ, $10 ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅᐃᓱᓕᓐᓂᖓ, ᐱᒋᐊᕐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᓗᒍ

1,000 ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ × 500 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ · ᑕᐅᑦᑐᖓ ᕗᐊᔪᓕᑦ p10/p25/p75/p90, ᖃᐅᒻᒪᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑐᖑᔪᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ, 83 ᐊᔪᕿᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐆᒃᑐᕈᑏᑦ · ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᒃᑯᑦ ᐃᖏᕐᕋᕐᓗᑎᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᑕᑯᓂᐊᕐᓗᒋᑦ

p10 −$500
p25 −$500
ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$500
p75 +$40
p90 +$1,480

1,000 ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ × 500 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ · ᖁᒻᒧᑦ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖅ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ 1–99-ᖓᓄᑦ ᐳᓴᓐᑎᓪᒧᑦ (ᐊᖏᓛᑦ −$500-ᒥᑦ +$4,120-ᒧᑦ) · 500 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ · $10 ᐱᒋᐊᕈᑎ · ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ, ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ ᖁᓛᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐊᓄᑦ. ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᐅᖓᓯᒃᑎᒋᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ.

ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ

ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ

ᓇᓕᐊ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙ ᐱᒋᐊᓕᖅᑐᓄᑦ, ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ?

ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ, ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᐅᑉ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᖓ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᓂᖓ ᑕᑯᓂᐊᕐᒪᒍ. ᑖᓚᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓴᐅᙱᓐᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᐱᔾᔪᑎᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

ᑳᓯᓄᑦ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐱᐅᒋᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙᑦ?

ᑳᓯᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᐅᒋᓂᖅᓴᖃᖅᑐᑦ. ᓯᓚᑖᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ ᓱᒃᑲᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᓱᒃᑲᐃᑦᑐᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕖᑦ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ.

ᒥᑭᓛᒥᒃ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᓯᔪᓐᓇᖅᐱᖓ ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᓯᓚᑖᓂᓗ ᓯᑉᐳᓂᒃ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ?

ᐊᑐᒐᔪᒃᑐᒥ ᐋᒡᒐ. ᐃᓗᐊᓂ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᓯᓚᑖᓂᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᒃ ᕉᓚᑦ ᒥᑭᓛᖓᓄᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᓴᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ.

ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ

ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.

$10 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓕᔪᑎᑦ $1-ᓗ 17-ᒧᑦ, ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ. ᐱᒋᐊᕈᓐᓇᖅᑐᑦ ᑎᑎᕋᕐᓗᒋᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᕐᒪᖔᑕ. ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᓕᕆᓗᑎᑦ $10 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ $10-ᓗ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᒧᑦ.
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ: +$9. 17: +$25. ᐊᓯᖓ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ: −$11. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ −$11/37, ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓ 30¢, ᑕᒪᓐᓇ $11 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ 2.70%-ᖓ. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᕐᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ $20-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑦ ᓯᕉᒥᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᓯᐊᓂᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᙱᑦᑐᑦ: −$20/37, $20-ᐅᑉ 2.70%-ᖓ.
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ 37 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 18-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ: $10 $10-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ $1-ᓗ 17-ᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔪᖅ, +$9. 17 ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑐᖅ: ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ $10-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᖅ $1-ᓗ $35-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ, +$25. ᐊᓯᖏᑦ 17 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᓯᕉᓗ, 18 ᐃᓂᑦᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ: ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒃ, −$11.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: (18 × 9 + 25 − 18 × 11)/37 = (162 + 25 − 198)/37 = −11/37.
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓇ ᐊᑭᒥᓂᒃ ᑎᒍᓯᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᓯᖓᓄᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᒐᓗᐊᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ: $10 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ 10/37-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ, $1 17-ᒥ 1/37-ᒥᒃ, ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᓪᓗ 11/37. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑕᖏᑕ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ, ᐊᑭᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᕐᓗ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑕᖏᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕉ ᐱᓗᒍ ᓄᙳᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ, ᓱᓕᓪᓗ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ 2.70%-ᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᓯᕉᒥ. ᕼᐅᓇᓴᒃ (Hunacek, 2025) ᐊᔾᔨᒋᔭᐅᔪᓂᒃ ᐃᓕᓐᓂᐊᕈᑎᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᓯᕉ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ ᐱᓕᕆᔪᖅ, ᑕᐅᕙᓂ ᐊᑭᖓ 5.26%.

ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ. ᓯᕉ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ.

ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ

Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer, 2010. ᐃᓚᖓ 13, ᕉᓚᑦ.
Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed. Academic Press, 2013.

ᕿᒥᕐᕈᔭᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ 2026-09-28ᐊᔾᔨᐅᖅᑕᐅᑎ: ᐃᐅᕌᐸ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉᖃᓄᖅ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ ↗ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ↗