ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ / ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ
ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ “ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ” ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐃᓚᖓ ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᖃᓄᑎᒋ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᑦ.
ᓯᕗᓪᓗᐊᖅᓗᓂ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐃᑦᑐᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃ. ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ; ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ ᑐᓪᓕᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᓐᓇᖅᑕᖓᓂᒃ ᐱᓯᔪᓐᓇᖅᑕᖓᓂᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᑭᓱᒥᒃ “ᐊᑦᑕᓇᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ”.
ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ
ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒪᔭᕐᓂᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓂᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓗᑎᑦ ᐲᖅᐸᑕᓗ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᓯᓚᑦᑐᓐᓂᕐᐹᒥᒃ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓯᒪᔭᕐᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᓇᓱᒃᓂᖅ ᐱᒋᐊᓚᐅᖅᑎᓐᓇᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᔪᖅ, ᐅᓐᓄᐊᐅᓪᓗ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᓈᓴᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᓯᓪᓗᓂᐅᒃ: ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᓂᑦᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᖏᓂᖓ, ᑎᑭᐅᑎᒍᕕᐅᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᐃᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᒥᓱᐊᕐᓗᒍ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓗᓂ. ᐅᕙᓂ ᒪᓕᒐᓂ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᖓᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓱᓕᓂᖅᐹᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᔪᖅ.
ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ
ᑐᕌᒐᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᓗᑎᑦ ᑎᑭᑉᐸᕕᑦ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᖅᓴᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᑎᑦᓯᓪᓗᓂᓗ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᐊᓘᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᓱᓕ −2.70%-ᖑᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᐊᔪᒐᐅᑎᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᖃᑦᑕᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ ᐃᓚᓗᒋᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᕼᐋᓐᑐᓪ, ᐋᒃᓴᓐ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →; ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᑦ ᖃᖓ ᑎᑭᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᓯᒪᔭᖅᐱᑦ, ᐲᖅᓯᓯᒪᙱᑦᑕᑎᑦ. “ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᑦᑕᓇᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᓯᒪᓂᖅ” ᐃᑉᐱᒍᓱᒃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ. ᑐᓪᓕᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ 18/37-ᖑᐃᓐᓇᕐᓂᐊᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᐅᓐᓄᒃᑯᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᓇᓱᐊᕈᓯᖅ ᑐᓪᓕᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᕕᑦ.
ᐊᑯᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ
ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᖅ ᐃᑲᔪᕐᒪᖔᑦ ᐊᑯᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᓚᐅᖅᓯᒪᔪᖅ. ᐃᓱᒪᓕᕆᔨ ᔮᓐ ᕙᐃᓐ (John Venn) ᐅᖃᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᓇᖕᒥᓂᖅ ᖃᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᐊᕐᒪᖔᑦ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕈᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᑮᓇᐅᔭᕆᐊᓕᐊᖅ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᙱᑉᐸᑦ. ᓘᑦ ᕇᓕ (Lord Rayleigh) ᑭᐅᓚᐅᖅᑐᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᖕᓂ ᐃᓚᖓᓂ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖃᖅᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖅ ᐲᖅᑐᖅ, ᒫᓐᓇᓗ ᓈᓴᐃᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᓱᓕᔪᑦ ᐊᖏᖃᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ: ᖃᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᑭᓱᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ (ᐃᐱᔅᑕᐃᓐ (Epstein), 2013). ᕖᓇᓯ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖓᓂ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥᑦ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᑦ, ᕙᐃᕐ ᓴᕐᓚᒪᐃᓐ (faire Charlemagne). ᐱᐅᓯᕆᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᑎᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᐅᓯᕙ
ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᐅᓪᓚᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᒥᒃ ᓇᓂᓯᒻᒪᑦ ᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. 60 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᑭᖑᐊᓂ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ 60 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᓯᒪᒻᒪᑦ, 100-ᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ 2.70%-ᒥᒃ ᐊᒥᓲᓐᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᑖᓚᓂᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᓯᒪᒻᒪᑦ. ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᑭᓱᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒥᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ: ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᐋᖅᑭᒃᓯᒪᔪᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᑐᕌᒐᖓ, ᑎᑭᐅᑎᒍᕕᐅᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᐃᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐱᕕᒃᓴᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ.
ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᖅ
ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᐅᑉ 20–40%-ᖓ ᓯᓚᑦᑐᖅ ᐅᓐᓄᐊᖅ ᐊᓪᓚᑦᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᓐᓄᐊᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᖏᓐᓂ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᓗᐊᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᐅᑉ 20–50%-ᖓ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖅᑕᐅᔪᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᕐᒥ ᑎᑭᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ (ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ $500-ᒥᑦ +$100 ᑎᑭᑦᑐᖅ ᖃᖓᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᕿᑎᐊᖏᓐᓂ ᖃᓂᒋᔭᖓᓂ), ᒥᑭᓗᐊᙱᓪᓗᓂ. ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᓇᖕᒥᓂᖅ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ; ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᐅᔪᖅ.
- p10 −$460
- p25 −$300
- ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$140
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$140
ᒪᓕᒐᐃᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖓ
ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᐊᐅᓚᑦᑎᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᓯᕗᓂᐊᓂ ᐃᓱᒪᓕᐅᕆᓯᒪᒃᐸᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᑎᓪᓗᒍᓗ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑕᐅᙱᑉᐸᑦ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ. “ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᙱᓐᓂᕐᒧᓪᓗ ᐅᑎᖅᓯᒪᓂᐊᕐᓗᖓ” ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑭᒡᓕᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᓴᐳᔾᔭᐅᓇᓱᒃᑐᒧᑦ. ᑕᐃᒪᐃᓕᖅᐸᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᑭᒡᓕᖓ ᖁᕝᕙᓯᒃᑎᑦᑎᓇᓂ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐊᔪᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᒥᑭᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᖅᓴᐅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ −2.70%-ᖑᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᓯᒪᔭᕐᓂ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ ᒪᓕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓗᓂᓗ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᒋᒃ.
ᐊᐅᓪᓚᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᒪᓕᒐᖅ. ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᑭᖃᙱᑦᑐᑦ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᓄᖅᑲᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᓴᓇᔭᖓ, ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- RouletteDoc. Roulette strategies overview.
- Roulette77. Roulette strategies overview.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, 2nd ed.