ᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅ · ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᖅ · 7 ᒥᓂᑦ

ᕉᓚᑦ: ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖓ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖓᓂ, ᐃᓱᖃᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑭᑦᑕᕈᓐᓇᖅᐸᒃᑯᕕᐅ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓄᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ 1/37-ᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᕙᒃᑐᑎᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ.

ᐱᓯᒪᓇᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ

ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᒍ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ $10 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐃᓕᓯᓂᖅ ᒥᓕᐊᓐᓄᑦ. ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ $10 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑦ, ᐃᓚᖏᓪᓗ $10 ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᑦ. ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᒥᓕᐊᓐᓄᓪᓗ ᐊᕕᒃᓗᒋᑦ: ᐊᑕᖃᓂᒃ −$0.27 ᐱᓂᐊᖅᑐᑎᑦ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ. ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐱᑦᑐᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ; ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ.

ᓇᐃᓈᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎEV = ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ × ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ − ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ × ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔭᐅᔪᑦ. ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓄᑦ ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ −2.70%-ᖓᓄᑦ ᑎᑭᑦᑐᖅ.

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᑉ EV-ᖓᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ

EV = p · W − (1 − p) · S
p = n/37 · W = S·(36/n − 1) · n = ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ · S = ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ

ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᒪᓕᒐᖓ, 36/n − 1, ᐃᓕᓯᓗᒍ, n-ᓗ ᐲᖅᑕᐅᓂᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐅᓂᒃᑲᐅᓯᖓ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᕐᒥ:

EV = (n/37)·S·(36/n − 1) − ((37−n)/37)·S
= S·(36 − n − 37 + n)/37
= −S/37

ᐆᑦᑐᕋᕐᓗᒍ: ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ

ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓗᒍ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ. ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓗ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᑐᑦ; ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᙱᑦᑐᖅ.

1 ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐃᓚᓕᐅᔭᐅᔪᖅ · ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ $10

ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ 97.3%

p(ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ)1/37 = 2.70%

ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖓ+$350

ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑭᖓ−$10

EV = p·W − (1−p)·S0.0270·$350 − 0.9730·$10

ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ−$0.27 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᑕᒫᑦ · −2.70%

ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓕᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᑦᑑᓂᖓ

ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ $10 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐅᓄᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᐱᒋᐊᓪᓚᑦᑎᓪᓗᒍ, ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᓴᙱᓛᖑᔪᖅ; ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ −$0.27-ᒧᑦ ᓄᖅᑲᖓᕙᓪᓕᐊᔪᖅ ᑕᑯᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐅᓄᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ. ᑕᒪᓐᓇ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᓕᕐᓂᖅ ᑳᓯᓄ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ.

ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖓ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑐᖅ ᓯᕉᐅᑉ ᐊᑖᑦᑎᐊᖓᓄᓪᓗ ᓄᖅᑲᖓᓪᓗᓂ.

ᐃᓱᒪᒋᓗᐊᖅᑕᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᑦ

“ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᓯᕉᐅᑉ ᐊᑖᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐊᕐᓂᓐᓂᒃ.”

ᐋᒃᑲ. ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᒥᓱᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᓂᖓᓂᒃ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᑐᐊᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓗᐊᖅᑐᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᓪᓗᑎᒡᓗ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐊᖏᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᔾᔨᖓ.

“ᑳᓯᓄ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᓯᒪᔭᕆᐊᖃᖅᑐᖅ.”

ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᓂ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᖅ; ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐃᓱᓕᑉᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖓ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑎᑦᑕᕐᒪᒍ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ, ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᓴᙱᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ.

“ᐃᓚᖏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐱᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ EV-ᓖᑦ ᐊᓯᖏᓐᓂᑦ.”

ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᐋᒃᑲ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ: ᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᓐ ᐳᕆᓴᓐ ᐊᑐᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐊᕝᕙᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑐᑦ.

ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ

$ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐱᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖓ.$

ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐱᑦᑐᖅ ᐱᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ. ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖓ.