ᑕᓴᓐ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᑕᓴᓐ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᖁᓕᓄᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓄᓪᓗ ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᖅ: 1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36.
ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1. ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 32.43%. ᓯᕉ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ.
ᕉᓚᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖓᓂ ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᓇᐅᓐᓂᑦᑐᑦ?
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ, ᐅᓗᐱᓕᒐᖅ, ᐊᓐᓄᕌᒃᓴᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓯᑕᐅᑦᑐᖅ ᓯᓈᖓᓂ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ, 1st 12, 2nd 12, 3rd 12-ᒥᒃ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑕᓕᒃ, ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᕖᓇᓯ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖏᓐᓂ P12 (première), M12 (moyenne), D12 (dernière). ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᒥᑭᓛᖓᓂᒃ ᑎᑭᐅᑎᖃᖁᔨᔭᐅᔪᑦ. ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑭᓇᒥᓗ ᑕᓴᓐᒥᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᑕᓴᓐ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ: ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᕐᓗ
ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ 37-ᓂᑦ ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ 2.083, 1-ᒧᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ 2-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ. $10 ᑕᓴᓐ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ $20-ᒥᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. 37 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ: 12-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ (+$240), 25-ᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ (−$250), ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ −$10.
ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᑕᐅᑦᑎᒃᑯᑦ
ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᓯᑉᐳᓂᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᐸᑕ 24 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ 37-ᓂᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑦ (64.9%), ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒥᒃᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑐᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ 2-ᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑎᑦ ᐊᓯᐊᓂᓗ 1-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᑎᑦ. 13 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ. (24 × 1 − 13 × 2)/37 = −2/37 ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓄᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑏᓐᓄᑦ, ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ 2.70%. ᐊᔾᔨᖓ ᐱᐅᓯᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ, ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᐱᖓᓱᓐᓂ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓗ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᓯᒪᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᑕᓴᓐᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᕐᓗ
ᑕᓴᓐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓯᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒻᒥᑎᑐᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ: 2, 1-ᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᖃᔅᓯᓂᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᒻᒪᖔᑦ, “X 1-ᒧᑦ” ᐅᖃᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐃᓚᓇᒍ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓯᓚᐅᖅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓃᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᒃ, ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ “ᑕᓴᓐ ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᖓᓂ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕐᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓗ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →” ᐱᖓᓱᕆᐊᖅᓯᔪᖅ. ᐱᖓᓱᕆᐊᖅᓯᓂᖅ $5-ᒥᑦ $500 ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᓄᑦᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᑭᒡᓕᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒥᑭᓛᖅ ᐊᖏᓛᕐᓗ ᐊᖏᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦ. ᐊᖏᓛᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓄᖅᑲᖅᑎᑦᑕᖏᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᓪᓕᒪᓐᓂ ᐊᑐᓂᓂ ᑎᑭᑦᑐᖅ, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒥᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓯᓂᖅ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓖᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᑕᓴᓐ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᑎᑕᖃᑦᑕᖅᑐᑦ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕆᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ.
ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ
ᑕᓴᓐ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᓯᓈᖓᓂ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᖅ ᑕᓴᓐ ᐃᓂᓐᓂᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐃᓂᑲᐃᕙᖅᑐᒥ 37 ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᑦ ᐃᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐃᓂᒋᐊᖅ, ᖃᓪᓗᐊᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12-ᒥ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓᓂ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᔪᓂ. ᑕᓴᓐ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᓂᒃᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓗᓕᖃᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓴᖑᓯᒪᔪᓂᒃ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᓂᒃ ᕿᓂᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᑐᖃᑦᑕᙱᑦᑐᑦ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐋᒃᑲ. ᑕᒪᕐᒥᑦ 12 37-ᓂᑦ. ᒪᕐᕉᖓᓂ ᑕᓴᓐ 17-ᒥᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᓂᖅᐹᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐅᓂᖓ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᕆᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐄ, ᑕᐃᒪ 36 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ 37-ᓂᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐊᖅᑐᑎᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂᒡᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓪᓗᑎᑦ, ᓯᕉ ᓴᖅᑭᑉᐸᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖏᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐊᖅᑕᑎᑦ.
ᐃᑲᕐᕋᑦᑎᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓂᒃ ᖁᓕᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᓂᒡᓗ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᒃ. ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᒪᓕᒐᖓ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᓈᓴᐃᔪᖅ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
64.9% ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᐅᔪᑦ. 2.70% ᑮᓇᐅᔭᐃᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᐅᔪᑦ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.