ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ
ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᖁᓕᓄᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᓄᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉ ᓈᑉᐸᖅᑐᒥ ᑐᑭᓕᐊᖓᓃᑦᑐᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᔪᖅ.
ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1. ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 32.43%. ᑕᓴᓐᑎᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᓈᓴᐅᑏᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ.
ᕉᓚᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᖓᓂ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦ
ᐃᓂᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ “2:1” ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᔪᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᒃᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᑎᑎᕋᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖏᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ, ᐅᓗᐱᓕᒐᖅ, ᐊᓐᓄᕌᒃᓴᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑖᓂ ᐃᓱᐊᓂ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᐅᑉ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖓᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑕᒪᕐᒥᑕ ᐊᑖᓂ. ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 1 1, 4, 7 … 34-ᒥᒃ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ; ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 2 2, 5, 8 … 35-ᒥᒃ; ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 3 3, 6, 9 … 36-ᒥᒃ. ᑕᒪᒃᑯᐊ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᓪᓗᑎᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᐅᑉ ᒥᑭᓛᖓᓂᒃ ᑎᑭᐅᑎᖃᖁᔨᔭᐅᔪᑦ. ᓯᕉᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᓯᕉᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᔾᔪᐊᕌᔭᒃ ᐃᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓄᑦ, ᑕᓴᓐᓄᑦ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᓪᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᐅᑎᙱᑕᖓ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᑕ ᐱᓇᓪᓗᑎᖓ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖏᑦ: ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓯᕉ, 0.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑭᓇᒥᓗ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᒥ ᐃᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᕉᓚᑦᒥ: ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᕐᓗ
ᑕᓴᓐᒥᒃᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔾᔨᒌᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᖅ: ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖏᑦ 2.083, 1-ᒧᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒃ 2-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᖃᖅᑐᖅ, ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 2.70% ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 1.39 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →.
ᑕᕐᕋᖏᑦ ᐊᒃᑐᐊᓂᖏᑦ
ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦ ᑕᕐᕋᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 1 ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓂᒃᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᖓᓲᔪᖅᑐᓂᒡᓗ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓂᒃᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᑐᖅ. ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 2 ᓯᑕᒪᓂᒃ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓂᒃ (5, 14, 23, 32) ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓕᓂᒡᓗ ᒪᕐᕉᓂᒃ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓂᒃ. ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 3 ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓕᓂᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᓂᒃ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᓯᑕᒪᓂᒡᓗ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓂᒃ (6, 15, 24, 33). ᐅᓇ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᔪᖅ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᕐᕋᖓᓄᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᒍᕕᐅᒃ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᑦᑎᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖃᑦᑕᕐᒪᖔᑦ ᖃᐅᔨᒍᒪᒍᕕᑦ: ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 3 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓗ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᑦᑎᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᒃ ᐊᕐᕕᓂᓕᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᓐᓂ, ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 2 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓗ ᓯᑕᒪᓐᓂ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ.
ᕉᓚᑦᒥ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦ ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᑕᓴᓐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᓂᖓᑦ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᕙ
ᑕᓴᓐ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᖁᓕᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒡᓗ ᑐᓪᓕᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ; ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂᒃ ᐊᑯᓐᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᖃᖏᖅᓯᔪᖅ. ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᑲᕐᕋᑦᑎᒃ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᔪᒃ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐅᙱᑦᑐᒃᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖅᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᑉ ᐃᓚᖓᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᕐᒥ ᐃᓂᑦ ᓴᓂᓕᐅᑎᒌᒃᑐᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᑲᑎᑦᑐᓂᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓ ᑕᑯᓐᓇᕈᑎᐅᓪᓚᑦᑖᖅᑐᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᑕᐃᒪᓐᓇᐅᑎᓪᓗᒍ “ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ” “ᑕᓴᓐᓄᓪᓗ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ” ᓂᐅᕕᖅᑕᐅᑉᐸᒃᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑎᑐᑦ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐅᓪᓗᐊᕐᓂᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ.
ᑲᑎᑦᑕᐅᓂᖏᑦ
ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᒃ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ, ᑕᓴᓐᑎᑐᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᑎᑐᑦ, 24 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ 37-ᓂᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᒃ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒥᒃ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒥᒃ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᓗᑎᒃ. ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ ᑕᓴᓐᓗ ᓯᑕᒪᓐᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑏᓐᓂ ᐊᑐᖅᑎᒌᒃᑐᒃ (ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᖅ 1 ᓯᕗᓪᓕᖅᐹᓪᓗ ᑕᓴᓐ 1, 4, 7, 10-ᒥᒃ ᐊᑐᖅᑎᒌᒃᑐᒃ), 20 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖃᖅᓗᑎᒃ ᓯᑕᒪᓐᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖃᖅᓗᑎᒃ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ.
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᓪᓚᖓᑕ ᐊᑖᓂ ᐃᓱᐊᓂ, 34-ᑉ, 35-ᑉ 36-ᓪᓗ ᐊᑖᓂ. ᕖᓇᓯ ᒪᕐᕉᓐᓂᒃ ᓯᓈᓕᒻᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᓯᕉᒥᑦ ᐅᖓᓯᓛᒥ ᐃᓱᐊᓂ ᐃᓂᖃᖅᑐᑦ.
ᐋᒃᑲ. ᓯᕉ ᓇᑉᐸᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᖁᓛᓃᑦᑐᖅ ᑭᓇᒥᓗ ᐃᓚᐅᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ, ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᑦ, ᑎᑎᕋᐅᓯᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.