ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᓪᓗ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖃᖅᑐᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕐᓕᒃᓗᒍ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓄᑦ; ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᕕᒃᓴᕐᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐊᔾᔨᒋᙱᑦᑐᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓃᒃ ᐃᓱᒪᒋᔭᐅᕙᒃᐸᒃ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᓯᔪᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖏᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᓪᓗᐊᑦᑎᐊᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ. ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ 34 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ 1 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ.
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ W, 1-ᒧᑦ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → p-ᒥ, ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐅᑉ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᑐᙵᕕᒋᔭᖓ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᓄᑦ ᓇᓗᓇᐃᖅᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ ᓇᓕᐊᓂᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᕕᒻᒥ ᐊᑐᕈᓐᓇᖁᓪᓗᒋᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖓ +W-ᖑᔪᖅ p ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᒍᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ −1 1 − p ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓᒍᑦ. ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᐊᑐᓂ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᓂᖅᓴᒥ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᓐᓂᖓ. ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ −1/37 ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → pW − (1 − p) = −1/37. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᑭᖓᑕ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᖃᓄᖅ ᓯᐊᒻᒪᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐅᑎ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒥ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᖕᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᒥᑭᔪᖅ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → E[X²] − EV² = pW² + (1 − p) − (1/37)². ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 35:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →: (1/37)(1225) + 36/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 34.08. ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →: 18/37 + 19/37 − 0.0007 ≈ 0.999.
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓᓄᑦ ᓱᓇᒥᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᐸ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓃᑦ ᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐃᒻᒥᓂᖅ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃ, ᓯᕗᓂᖓᓂ ᐱᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᖃᓄᐃᒃᑲᓗᐊᕐᒪᖔᑕ. ᒪᑉᐱᒐᓂ ᐅᕙᓂ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑏᑦ ᑕᒪᐃᑦ ᑐᙵᕕᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑲᑎᑕᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ, ᑕᐃᒪ N ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᓕᒻᒥ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖓ N × ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ² × σ²-ᖑᔪᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑭᐊᖅᑐᓂᖓ (√); ᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᑦ ᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᐅᒐᔪᒃᑐᖅ ᐅᖓᓯᑦᑎᒋᓂᖓ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → σ × ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓ × √N. 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᑦ $10-ᒥ: ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᖓ $584 ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓄᑦ ᐊᒻᒪ $100 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ −$27 ᐊᕙᓗᓪᓗᒍ. ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᕼᐊᓐᑐᕆᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᓄᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᔪᓂᒃ ᑕᑯᔪᖅ; ᐊᓯᐊ ᖃᐃᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑕᑯᔪᖅ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᖅᓱᖅᑐᒃ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᓪᓗ
ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅᒪᓕᒐᖅ ᓇᓕᐊᑐᐃᓐᓇᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᓂᒃ ᐊᓂᒍᖅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐱᓐᓂᖏᑦ ᒪᓕᒡᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᐃᔪᖅ. ᐊᑲᐅᙱᑦᑐᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᖁᕝᕙᑦᑎᔪᑦ, ᐱᐅᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → EV ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᒧᑦ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᙱᑦᑐᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓪᓗ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ. ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᑐᖅ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑏᑦ ᐃᓚᖓᓂ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᕐᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᐃᓕᐅᙱᓐᓂᖓᓗ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᒥᑭᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ (ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᒥᑭᔪᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ) ᐊᒻᒪ ᐊᖏᔪᒥᒃ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖃᓐᓂᖅᓴᒥᒃ ᐃᓚᒋᐊᖅᓯᓪᓗᓂ (ᐱᑦᑕᕐᕕᐅᓐᖏᓂᖅᓴᖅ ᐊᖏᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ); ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᑲᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒥᑦᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᖅ. ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᑦ ᑕᒪᑐᒧᖓ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᓯᔭᐅᕙᒃᑐᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᖅ ᑖᔅᓱᒪ ᐱᓪᓗᒍ. ᐸᕈᓕᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᐸᕈᓕᐱᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᖅ: ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᒪᕐᕉᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ, ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ ᑭᖑᓂᖓᓂ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᑭᖑᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᐱᒋᐊᖅᑭᓪᓗᒍ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᐅᑎᖅᑕᖅ ᒫᑎᓐᒐᐃᓪ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐅᑎᖅᑕᖅᑐᒥᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᖅ. ᐸᕐᓇᐅᑎᒥᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᐅᓯᖓᓂᒃ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᕐᓂᐅᔪᖅ; ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ ᓇᓚᐅᑦᑖᖅᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- ᐊᑯᓐᓂᐊᓃᑦᑐᖅ −$500
- p75 +$40
- p90 +$1,120
ᓱᒻᒪᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᒧᑦ ᐱᒻᒪᕆᐅᕙ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖏᓐᓂ ᓇᐃᑦᑐᓂ ᓇᓗᓇᖅᑐᓂᒃ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᓂᓪᓗ ᓇᓗᓇᙱᑦᑐᓂᒃ ᓴᓇᔪᖅ. σ = $100 ᐊᒻᒪ EV = −$27 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ, ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᓯᑕᒪᐅᓂᖓᑕ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖓ ᐊᒻᒪ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑐᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑕᐅᓂᖓ ᐊᑐᕐᓗᐊᖑᔪᖅ. 10,000 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᓂ EV −$2,700-ᖑᔪᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ σ $1,000-ᖑᔪᖅ; ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᒃᑯᑦ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᓐᓂᕐᒥᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᕆᐊᖅᓗᒍ ᖃᓂᒋᔮᓂ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᒻᒪ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᖅᑐᑦ ᑐᓪᓕᖅᑐᑦ ᐱᖓᓱᓂᒃ ᓯᒡᒪᓂᒃ ᐱᑦᑕᕐᓂᐅᓕᖅᑐᑦ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᐅᑉ ᐱᓗᐊᖅᑕᖓ ᓇᐃᑦᑐᒥ, ᑳᓯᓅᓪᓗ ᐊᑯᓂᐅᔪᒥ.
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑲᑎᑦᑕᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖏᑦ
ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᐊᒥᓱᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᑉᐸᑕ, ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖏᑦ ᑲᑎᖓᔪᑦ (17 ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᓄᐊᕐ (noir).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᑐᐊᓪᓗ ᑕᓴᓐᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᑕᓴᓐ1–12, 13–24 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 25–36, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 2:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᔪᒐᖅᑐᑦ), ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓃᑦ ᑲᑎᑕᐅᑐᐃᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᑦ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ ᓴᓇᕐᕈᑎ ᓯᑉᐳᑦᑮᓇᐅᔭᖅᓯᑉᓇᓗᓇᐃᒃᑯᑎ ᐊᑭᖃᐃᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᕆᕝᕕᖕᒥ ᐃᓕᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᕐᓂᕐᒧᑦ. ᐊᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᑎᖓ: ᓯᐊᒃ (check).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᓇᓕᐊᒃᑲᓐᓂᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᓱᓕᔪᒥᒃ ᓈᓴᐃᔪᖅ 37 ᐃᓱᓕᑦᑎᓂᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓂᒃ ᓈᓴᐃᓪᓗᓂ, ᑖᓐᓇ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᐅᔪᖅ ᓱᓕᔪᖅ ᐱᓕᕆᓯᐅᑎ.
ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓕᐅᕈᑎ
ᐊᐱᖅᑯᑏᑦ
ᐋᒡᒐ. ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦ ᑕᒪᕐᒥᒃ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᖃᖅᑐᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ. ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᖅ ᑕᐃᑦᓱᒪ ᐊᕙᓗᐊᓂ ᐊᖏᓂᖅᓴᓂᒃ ᐊᓯᑦᑐᖅᐸᓪᓕᐊᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᑐᑭᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ/ᕿᕐᓂᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᙱᑦᑐᖅ/ᐊᕕᒃᑕᐅᔪᓐᓇᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᖏᔪᑦ/ᒥᑭᔪᑦ. 18 ᓈᓴᐅᑏᑦ, ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎ 1:1.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, σ ≈ 1 ᐊᑦᔨᐅᑎᒧᑦ. ᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾᒪᓕᒐᖅᓚ ᐸᕐᑕᔾᕖᓇᓯ ᒪᓕᒐᖓ: ᓯᕉ ᐊᔪᒐᖅᐸᑦ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᖓᑕ ᕿᑎᖓ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ. ᑕᐃᒃᑯᓂ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑏᓐᓂ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᐃᓚᖓ ᕿᑎᐊᓄᑦ ᒥᑭᓕᒋᐊᖅᑎᑕᐅᔪᖅ, 1.35%-ᒧᑦ.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → ᐊᑐᖅᑕᐅᑎᓪᓗᒍ ᒥᑭᓂᖅᓴᐅᓕᖅᑐᖅ, ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᑕᐅᔪᕐᓗ ᐱᐅᓯᑎᑕᐅᓪᓗᓂ.
ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᖅ ᑖᓚᒧᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ; ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅ ᑳᓯᓅᑉ ᑮᓇᐅᔭᒃᓴᕐᓂᖓ ᖃᓄᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᑦᑐᒥᒃ ᑎᑭᑉᐸᓐᓂᖓᓂᒃ ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᐊᓯᔾᔨᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐊᒻᒪ ᑳᓯᓄ ᑕᐅᓴᓐ ᐊᒥᓱᓂᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎᓂᒃ ᐱᑕᖃᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᓕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᓂᒃ.
ᓈᓴᐃᓂᕐᒥᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕐᓂᖅ
ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓪᓗᓂ ᐃᓕᖕᓂᒃ ᐆᒃᑐᕐᓗᑎᑦ. ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑏᑦ ᐃᓗᓕᖏᑦ ᒪᑐᔭᐅᓯᒪᔪᑦ; ᐅᐸᒍᓐᓇᕈᕕᑦ ᒪᑐᐃᖅᓯᓗᒍ.
ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᒃ ᑕᒪᒃᑭᓄᑦ $1-ᒥᒃ ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓂᕐᒥ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᓕᐅᖅᑐᒃ 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ ᐃᐅᕌᐸ ᐊᒃᓴᓗᐊᖓᓂ, ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᑕᐃᒪ ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᒥᒃ ᐊᑭᓕᐅᑎᓕᒃ ᐱᙳᐊᕈᑎ 18 ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᓄᑦ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᓄᑦ. ᕖᓇᓯᑐᑦ: ᕈᔾ (rouge).ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ →, ᐊᓯᐊ ᑕᐃᒪ 17-ᒧᑦ. ᑭᓇ ᐃᓱᐊᓂ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙ?
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᑕᑯᓗᒍ
ᑭᐅᔾᔪᑎ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ 17-ᒧᑦ: 50.9%, ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᒧᑦ 35.5% ᐊᑐᓂ. ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑎᓪᓗᒋᑦ $2.70-ᒥᒃ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᔪᒃ.
ᐊᐅᐸᓗᒃᑐᖅ: ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᔪᖅ 100 ᐃᓚᖏᓐᓂ 51 ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ ᐊᔪᒐᕈᓂ, ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓇ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᓕᒃᓈᓴᐃᓂᖅᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅᐱᓐᓂᐅᑉ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖓ, 0-ᒥᑦ 1-ᒧᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ 0%-ᒥᑦ 100%-ᒧᑦ. ᓈᓴᐅᑎ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ: 1/37 = 2.70%.ᐃᓘᓐᓇᖓ ᐅᖃᓕᒫᕐᓗᒍ → 18/37. ᒪᕐᕉᓄᑦ ᐊᕕᒃᓯᒪᓂᖏᑦ (binomial) 35.5%-ᒥᒃ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑎᔪᑦ, 50-ᓗ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᑦ ᓱᓕᓪᓚᕆᒃ, ᐊᔪᒐᙱᓪᓗᓂ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᙱᓪᓗᓂᓗ, ᐊᓯᐊ 7.7%.
ᓈᓴᐅᑎ 17: ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᑕᒪᐃᓐᓇ $36-ᒥᒃ ᐅᑎᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᑕᐃᒪᐃᒻᒪᑦ ᒪᕐᕉᒃ ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓃᒃ (−$28) ᓈᒻᒪᙱᑦᑐᒃ ᐱᖓᓱᓪᓗ (+$8) ᓈᒻᒪᒃᑐᑦ. 100 ᑲᐃᕙᕐᓃᓐᓂ 1/37-ᒥ ᐱᖓᓱᓄᑦ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐱᔪᓐᓇᕐᓂᖅ 50.9%.
ᐊᑕᐅᓯᕐᒧᑦ ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑎ ᓯᕗᓪᓕᐅᓂᖅᓴᐅᕙᒃᑐᖅ, ᑭᓯᐊᓂ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑕᖏᑦ ᐊᔾᔨᒌᙱᓐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ: ᐊᔪᒐᕐᓂᖅ ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᐅᖓᑖᓄᑦ ᐅᕝᕙᓘᓐᓃᑦ ᐊᑖᓄᑦ ᓴᖅᑭᑦᑕᖓᓂᒃ $36-ᒥᒃ ᓄᑦᑕᖅᑎᑦᓯᔪᖅ, ᐱᙳᐊᖅᑏᓪᓗ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓯᒪᔪᑦ ᐊᒥᓲᓂᖅᐹᒥ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓗᐊᕐᓂᖅᓴᐅᔪᑦ. ᐳᓪᒪᓐ (Bollman, 2024) ᐊᒥᐊᓕᑲ ᓈᓴᐅᑎᖏᓐᓂᒃ ᑐᓂᓯᔪᖅ, 26.5% 49.2%-ᓗ.
ᐃᓪᓗᕐᓇᖅᑐᖅ ᐊᔾᔨᓕᐊᖅ
ᐊᔾᔨᒌᒃᑐᖅ ᓂᕆᐅᒋᔭᐅᔪᖅ ᐊᓯᐅᔾᔨᓂᖅ. ᐊᑕᐅᓯᖅ ᓂᐱᖃᓗᐊᖅᓗᓂ ᐅᖃᐅᓯᖃᖅᑐᖅ.
ᐱᕝᕕᒋᔭᐅᔪᑦ
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.